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Arsenal Tivat vs Grbalj - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Montenegro Montenegro

Montenegrin Cup Stadion u Parku, Tivat
Tue, Oct 13, 2026
VS
12:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

A one-off knockout match in the Montenegrin Cup. Recent form is the clearest guide to this one. Recent numbers: Arsenal Tivat at 0.89 goals for, 1.68 against; Grbalj at 1.57 for, 1.25 against. Past meetings favor Arsenal Tivat slightly — 3-1-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on May 24, 2022, ending 5:3. xG projections (0.69 - 1.31) back Grbalj to edge this. The model's pick is Away (2) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%
Arsenal Tivat
15%
Draws
65%
Grbalj
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Grbalj

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / High Confidence
  • Grbalj have won more games recently than Arsenal Tivat.
  • Grbalj are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Grbalj arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Arsenal Tivat, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Arsenal Tivat Clean Sheet 18%
Grbalj Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Arsenal Tivat Grbalj
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 8 14
Draws 6 5
Losses 14 9
Goals Scored 0.89 1.57
Goals Conceded 1.68 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 0.69 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 24, 2022 Druga Liga
Arsenal Tivat vs Grbalj
5:3
Apr 9, 2022 Druga Liga
Grbalj vs Arsenal Tivat
0:1
Dec 8, 2021 Druga Liga
Arsenal Tivat vs Grbalj
0:0
Oct 9, 2021 Druga Liga
Grbalj vs Arsenal Tivat
0:2
May 12, 2021 Druga Liga
Grbalj vs Arsenal Tivat
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Arsenal Tivat 10 / 100
Grbalj 85 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Arsenal Tivat Grbalj

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Grbalj Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Arsenal Tivat's goal record stands at 61% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Grbalj has conceded goals in 71% of their last 28 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

Arsenal Tivat went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Arsenal Tivat VS Grbalj
0.63 Goals Scored 1.25
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.75
50% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Arsenal Tivat

(Home)
19 Sept
Arsenal Tivat
0 : 2
Sutjeska
14 Sept
Petrovac
1 : 2
Arsenal Tivat
10 Sept
Arsenal Tivat
0 : 1
Mladost DG
05 Sept
Jezero
5 : 2
Arsenal Tivat
30 Aug
Arsenal Tivat
1 : 2
Otrant
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Grbalj

(Away)
04 Oct
Zeta
1 : 0
Grbalj
30 Sept
Iskra Danilovgrad
0 : 1
Grbalj
26 Sept
Grbalj
3 : 1
Rudar
20 Sept
Grbalj
3 : 0
Berane
12 Sept
Grbalj
1 : 1
Lovcen
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Lovcen -
Jezero -
Sutjeska -
Decic -
Petrovac -
Kom Podgorica -
Arsenal Tivat -
Grbalj -
Mladost DG -
Iskra Danilovgrad -
Berane -
Jedinstvo -
Bokelj -
Buducnost -
Otrant -
Mornar Bar -
Quarter-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Semi-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Final
TBD -
TBD -