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Arsenal Tivat vs Mornar Bar - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Montenegro Montenegro

Prva Crnogorska Liga Stadion u Parku, Tivat
Sun, Oct 18, 2026
VS
03:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Arsenal Tivat host Mornar Bar in the Prva Crnogorska Liga. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Recent numbers: Arsenal Tivat at 0.89 goals for, 1.68 against; Mornar Bar at 1.4 for, 0.7 against. Past meetings favor Mornar Bar slightly — 1-2-2 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Aug 7, 2026, ending 0:0. xG projections (0.76 - 1.25) back Mornar Bar to edge this. Away (2) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Arsenal Tivat
20%
Draws
50%
Mornar Bar
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Mornar Bar

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

50% / Medium Confidence
  • Mornar Bar carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Mornar Bar are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Arsenal Tivat Clean Sheet 19%
Mornar Bar Clean Sheet 19%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Arsenal Tivat Mornar Bar
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 8 17
Draws 6 9
Losses 14 4
Goals Scored 0.89 1.4
Goals Conceded 1.68 0.7
Expected Goals (xG) 0.76 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 7, 2026 Prva Crnogorska Liga
Mornar Bar vs Arsenal Tivat
0:0
Apr 12, 2026 Prva Crnogorska Liga
Arsenal Tivat vs Mornar Bar
0:1
Feb 21, 2026 Prva Crnogorska Liga
Mornar Bar vs Arsenal Tivat
1:2
Oct 8, 2025 Prva Crnogorska Liga
Arsenal Tivat vs Mornar Bar
0:1
Aug 10, 2025 Prva Crnogorska Liga
Mornar Bar vs Arsenal Tivat
2:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Arsenal Tivat 20 / 100
Mornar Bar 58 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Arsenal Tivat Mornar Bar

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Mornar Bar Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Arsenal Tivat found the back of the net in 61% of recent matches (28 games).

These sides typically produce 1.80 goals when they meet.

Defensive concern: Mornar Bar conceded in 53% of 30 recent games.

Recent resilience: Arsenal Tivat stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Arsenal Tivat VS Mornar Bar
0.63 Goals Scored 1.13
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.88
50% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Arsenal Tivat

(Home)
19 Sept
Arsenal Tivat
0 : 2
Sutjeska
14 Sept
Petrovac
1 : 2
Arsenal Tivat
10 Sept
Arsenal Tivat
0 : 1
Mladost DG
05 Sept
Jezero
5 : 2
Arsenal Tivat
30 Aug
Arsenal Tivat
1 : 2
Otrant
Page 1 of 6

Mornar Bar

(Away)
08 Oct
Mornar Bar
3 : 3
Jezero
02 Oct
Mladost DG
1 : 5
Mornar Bar
20 Sept
Decic
1 : 1
Mornar Bar
14 Sept
Mornar Bar
0 : 1
Otrant
08 Sept
Sutjeska
1 : 0
Mornar Bar
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Otrant 10 5 2 3 17:12 17
2 Decic 9 4 3 2 10:7 15
3 Bokelj 9 4 3 2 8:5 15
4 Buducnost 9 4 2 3 11:7 14
5 Sutjeska 9 4 2 3 11:7 14
6 Mornar Bar 10 3 5 2 12:10 14
7 Mladost DG 10 3 2 5 10:17 11
8 Jezero 10 2 4 4 12:18 10
9 Petrovac 9 1 5 3 7:9 8
10 Arsenal Tivat 9 1 4 4 5:11 7
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Druga Liga (Promotion)
Relegation - Druga Liga 2027/2028 (Main)