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Arsenal (TO) vs SD Sparta

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Campeonato Tocantinense 2019
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AI Match Summary

SD Sparta in this Campeonato Tocantinense 2019 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored SD Sparta.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

4%
Arsenal (TO)
6%
Draws
90%
SD Sparta
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: SD Sparta

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to SD Sparta lately — more wins on the board than Arsenal (TO).
  • 90% — that's where the model lands on SD Sparta taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 3 times recently and SD Sparta have taken 2 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 16.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 7%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Arsenal (TO) Clean Sheet 15%
SD Sparta Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Arsenal (TO) SD Sparta
Matches Played 12 32
Wins 1 13
Draws 3 7
Losses 8 12
Goals Scored 0.2 1.25
Goals Conceded 1.8 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 0.20 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.80 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 26, 2024 Tocantinense 2
SD Sparta vs Arsenal (TO)
1:0
May 8, 2019 Tocantinense
SD Sparta vs Arsenal (TO)
1:1
Apr 21, 2019 Tocantinense
Arsenal (TO) vs SD Sparta
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Arsenal (TO) 10 / 100
SD Sparta 85 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Arsenal (TO) SD Sparta

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SDS Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Arsenal (TO) scored in 75% of their last 12 games.

Defensive concern: SD Sparta conceded in 66% of 32 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

SD Sparta's recent record shows 1 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Arsenal (TO) VS SD Sparta
0.2 Goals Scored 1.25
1.8 Goals Conceded 1.13
60% Over 1.5 63%
40% Over 2.5 38%
20% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Arsenal (TO)

(Home)
02 Nov
Arsenal (TO)
0 : 2
Araguacema
26 Oct
SD Sparta
1 : 0
Arsenal (TO)
19 Oct
Guarai SC
3 : 1
Arsenal (TO)
12 Oct
Arsenal (TO)
0 : 3
Bela Vista-TO
12 May
Arsenal (TO)
1 : 2
Araguaina
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SD Sparta

(Away)
04 Dec
Bela Vista-TO
1 : 1
SD Sparta
30 Nov
SD Sparta
0 : 1
Bela Vista-TO
23 Nov
SD Sparta
1 : 1
Araguaia (TO)
16 Nov
Araguaia (TO)
0 : 1
SD Sparta
09 Nov
Araguacema
1 : 1
SD Sparta
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League Standings (Group 1)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Palmas640210:712
2Forca Jovem Aquidaba62229:88
3Interporto62138:87
4Alvorada62137:117
Promotion - Campeonato Tocantinense 2019 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Tocantinopolis842216:1014
2SD Sparta842211:914
3Cerrado83329:812
4Araguaina81436:97
5Arsenal (TO)813414:206
Promotion - Campeonato Tocantinense 2019 (Play Offs)