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Arsenal Tula vs Neftekhimik - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Russia Russia

FNL Stadion Arsenal, Tula
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Match Events

32'
Karmaev N.
52' Event
Mashukov I.
56'
Vasiljev N.

AI Match Summary

The FNL game between Arsenal Tula and Neftekhimik finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Neftekhimik.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

49%
Arsenal Tula
15%
Draws
36%
Neftekhimik
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Arsenal Tula

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Neftekhimik carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 36% — that's where the model lands on Arsenal Tula taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Arsenal Tula Clean Sheet 68%
Neftekhimik Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Arsenal Tula Neftekhimik
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 5 9
Draws 11 6
Losses 12 14
Goals Scored 1.07 1
Goals Conceded 1.68 1.28
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 19, 2026 FNL
Arsenal Tula vs Neftekhimik
0:1
Nov 30, 2025 FNL
Arsenal Tula vs Neftekhimik
0:0
Sep 29, 2025 FNL
Neftekhimik vs Arsenal Tula
1:0
Nov 16, 2024 FNL
Neftekhimik vs Arsenal Tula
2:2
Aug 11, 2024 FNL
Arsenal Tula vs Neftekhimik
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Arsenal Tula Compare

Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Neftekhimik Compare

Top Goalscorer Mashukov I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Arsenal Tula 46 / 100
Neftekhimik 44 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Arsenal Tula Neftekhimik

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Arsenal Tula scored in 68% of their last 28 outings.

Defensive concern: Neftekhimik conceded in 66% of 29 recent games.

Games between these two average 1.60 goals.

Away concern: Neftekhimik has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Arsenal Tula VS Neftekhimik
0.88 Goals Scored 0.63
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Arsenal Tula

(Home)
04 Oct
CSKA Moscow
3 : 1
Arsenal Tula
26 Sept
Lokomotiv Moscow
0 : 2
Arsenal Tula
16 Sept
Yenisey
3 : 1
Arsenal Tula
13 Sept
Arsenal Tula
2 : 2
SKA Khabarovsk
08 Sept
Tekstilshtik
1 : 0
Arsenal Tula
Page 1 of 6

Neftekhimik

(Away)
18 Sept
Neftekhimik
0 : 1
Ural
14 Sept
S. Kostroma
1 : 0
Neftekhimik
09 Sept
FC Chertanovo Moscow
2 : 1
Neftekhimik
05 Sept
Yenisey
0 : 2
Neftekhimik
28 Aug
Neftekhimik
0 : 1
Ufa
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Pari Nizhny Novgorod 12 10 1 1 36:14 31
2 Ural 12 7 4 1 20:6 25
3 S. Kostroma 12 7 3 2 16:10 24
4 PFC Sochi 12 7 2 3 21:14 23
5 Veles Moscow 13 7 2 4 17:16 23
6 Torpedo Moscow 12 6 3 3 21:9 21
7 Ufa 12 4 6 2 16:13 18
8 R. Volgograd 12 5 2 5 20:14 17
9 Shinnik Yaroslavl 12 3 7 2 15:13 16
10 Yenisey 12 3 5 4 15:20 14
11 Ulyanovsk 13 4 2 7 16:19 14
12 Arsenal Tula 12 3 4 5 12:22 13
13 Leningradets 12 3 4 5 10:20 13
14 Neftekhimik 12 4 0 8 7:15 12
15 Chelyabinsk 12 3 3 6 13:19 12
16 Kamaz 12 2 3 7 11:19 9
17 Tekstilshtik 12 1 4 7 8:19 7
18 SKA Khabarovsk 12 1 3 8 11:23 6
Promotion - Premier League 2027/2028 (Main)
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