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Arsenal Tula vs Neftekhimik

Russia Russia

FNL Stadion Arsenal
Our Tip

Match Events

32'
Karmaev N.
52' Event
Mashukov I.
56'
Vasiljev N.

AI Match Summary

The FNL game between Arsenal Tula and Neftekhimik finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Neftekhimik.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Arsenal Tula
39%
Draws
31%
Neftekhimik
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Neftekhimik carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 39% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
Arsenal Tula Clean Sheet 68%
Neftekhimik Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Arsenal Tula Neftekhimik
Matches Played 27 29
Wins 7 9
Draws 9 11
Losses 11 9
Goals Scored 1.13 1.25
Goals Conceded 1.75 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 19, 2026 FNL
Arsenal Tula vs Neftekhimik
0:1
Nov 30, 2025 FNL
Arsenal Tula vs Neftekhimik
0:0
Sep 29, 2025 FNL
Neftekhimik vs Arsenal Tula
1:0
Nov 16, 2024 FNL
Neftekhimik vs Arsenal Tula
2:2
Aug 11, 2024 FNL
Arsenal Tula vs Neftekhimik
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Arsenal Tula Compare

Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Neftekhimik Compare

Top Goalscorer Mashukov I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Arsenal Tula 41 / 100
Neftekhimik 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Arsenal Tula Neftekhimik

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ARS Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Arsenal Tula scored in 70% of their last 27 outings.

Defensive concern: Neftekhimik conceded in 66% of 29 recent games.

Games between these two average 1.60 goals.

Solid form: Arsenal Tula remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Arsenal Tula VS Neftekhimik
1.13 Goals Scored 1.25
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Ufa11003:03
2Pari Nizhny Novgorod11004:23
3Chelyabinsk11003:13
4S. Kostroma11003:13
5Yenisey11002:13
6Arsenal Tula11002:13
7Torpedo Moscow11001:03
8Veles Moscow11001:03
9Shinnik Yaroslavl10102:21
10PFC Sochi10102:21
11Tekstilshtik10011:20
12Ulyanovsk10011:20
13Ural10010:10
14Neftekhimik10010:10
15R. Volgograd10012:40
16SKA Khabarovsk10011:30
17Kamaz10011:30
18Leningradets10010:30