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Aruba vs Haiti

North & Central America North & Central America

CONCACAF Nations League Complejo Deportivo Guillermo Prospero Trinidad
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Aruba play Haiti in the CONCACAF Nations League. It looks like a close match. Recently, Aruba averaged 1.47 goals scored and 2.23 conceded. Haiti averaged 2.2 goals scored and 1.3 conceded. In past meetings, Aruba won 0, Haiti won 3, and they drew 0. Their last match on Jun 7, 2025 ended 0:5. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.67 for Aruba and 1.29 for Haiti. This points to a Haiti double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%
Aruba
15%
Draws
53%
Haiti
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Haiti

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

79% / High Confidence
  • Aruba picked up more points recently compared to Haiti.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.67 vs 1.29 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 70%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 86%
Over 2.5 Goals 70%
Over 3.5 Goals 42%
Over 4.5 Goals 21%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 51%
Aruba Clean Sheet 19%
Haiti Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 77%
Second Half Goal 82%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aruba Haiti
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 10 14
Draws 4 6
Losses 16 10
Goals Scored 1.47 2.2
Goals Conceded 2.23 1.3
Expected Goals (xG) 2.20 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.20 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 7, 2025 World Championship
Aruba vs Haiti
0:5
Oct 15, 2024 CONCACAF Nations League
Haiti vs Aruba
5:3
Oct 12, 2024 CONCACAF Nations League
Aruba vs Haiti
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aruba Compare

Top Goalscorer Perret Gentil T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.69
Avg xA / game 1.1

Haiti Compare

Top Goalscorer Pierrot F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Nazon D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aruba 33 / 100
Haiti 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aruba Haiti

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Haiti Win (2)
Secondary Pick Haiti & Over 2.5
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +33.4%
4.17
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +9.2%
1.56
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Aruba attacking → ← attacking Haiti

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Aruba scored in 57% of their last 30 games.

Haiti let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 5.67 goals.

Aruba went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Haiti lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

34 Points in last 5 48
2.20 Goals expected (xG) 1.38
1.20 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.13

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1El Salvador650112:615
2Saint Vincent and the Grenadines641112:713
3Bonaire61144:84
4Montserrat61053:103
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Curacao641115:313
2Saint Lucia63037:159
3Grenada62137:67
4Saint Martin62048:136
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Haiti660029:518
2Puerto Rico630311:129
3Sint Maarten63037:189
4Aruba60065:170
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Dominican Republic660027:418
2Bermuda640215:1312
3Dominica61146:184
4Antigua and Barbuda60152:151