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Arucas vs Estrella

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 12 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

64' Event
Arencibia Santana F.
90'
Bolanos I.
90' Event
Mendoza K.

AI Match Summary

Arucas in this Tercera RFEF - Group 12 2024/2025 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Arucas.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Arucas
35%
Draws
35%
Estrella
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Arucas lately — more wins on the board than Estrella.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 12 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 33%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Arucas Clean Sheet 16%
Estrella Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Arucas Estrella
Matches Played 39 30
Wins 12 7
Draws 11 9
Losses 16 14
Goals Scored 1.28 0.9
Goals Conceded 1.41 1.6
Expected Goals (xG) 1.10 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 21, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Arucas vs Estrella
2:0
Nov 8, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Estrella vs Arucas
3:2
Jan 27, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Arucas vs Estrella
2:0
Oct 12, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Estrella vs Arucas
1:2
Jan 8, 2017 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Estrella vs Arucas
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Arucas Compare

Top Goalscorer Arencibia Santana F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mendoza K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.55

Estrella Compare

Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Arucas 31 / 100
Estrella 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Arucas Estrella

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.

Arucas's goal record stands at 69% scoring rate across 39 recent games.

Estrella's defensive record shows goals conceded in 73% of 30 matches.

Recent resilience: Arucas stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Arucas VS -
1 Goals Scored 0
2 Goals Conceded 0
75% Over 1.5 0%
50% Over 2.5 0%
50% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Arucas

(Home)
10 May
CD Marino
1 : 2
Arucas
03 May
Arucas
0 : 1
Mensajero
25 Apr
Tenerife C
1 : 1
Arucas
22 Apr
Union Sur Yaiza
3 : 0
Arucas
18 Apr
Arucas
0 : 0
San Bartolome
Page 1 of 8

Estrella

(Away)
11 May
Estrella
2 : 1
Herbania
04 May
San Bartolome
1 : 0
Estrella
26 Apr
Estrella
1 : 1
CD Santa Ursula
17 Apr
CD Buzanada
1 : 1
Estrella
12 Apr
Estrella
2 : 2
CD Marino
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Las Palmas B 34 22 10 2 66:17 76
2 UD San Fernando 34 21 10 3 58:20 73
3 Tamaraceite 34 18 9 7 48:29 63
4 Ibarra 34 18 5 11 49:40 59
5 Mensajero 34 16 8 10 50:37 56
6 Lanzarote 34 16 7 11 56:33 55
7 Panaderia 34 13 11 10 45:39 50
8 CD Marino 34 12 11 11 43:45 47
9 Arucas 34 12 9 13 38:36 45
10 San Bartolome 34 10 15 9 43:35 45
11 Villa Santa Brigida 34 10 11 13 34:42 41
12 Herbania 34 10 10 14 33:41 40
13 CD Santa Ursula 34 10 10 14 29:42 40
14 San Miguel 34 10 7 17 36:54 37
15 CD Buzanada 34 9 5 20 27:54 32
16 Estrella 34 7 9 18 30:57 30
17 Los Llanos 34 7 7 20 25:52 28
18 Union Viera 34 3 10 21 28:65 19
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 12 2024/2025 (Play Offs)