Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Arucas vs San Miguel

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 12 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

53' Event
Garcia I.
60' Event
Estevez M.
76' Event
Frieh A.

AI Match Summary

Arucas in this Tercera RFEF - Group 12 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 3-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Arucas.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Arucas
30%
Draws
47%
San Miguel
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: San Miguel

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • San Miguel have won more games recently than Arucas.
  • 47% — that's where the model lands on San Miguel taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Arucas Clean Sheet 18%
San Miguel Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Arucas San Miguel
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 6 9
Draws 11 8
Losses 13 13
Goals Scored 0.97 1.07
Goals Conceded 1.43 1.23
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 14, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Arucas vs San Miguel
3:0
Nov 1, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
San Miguel vs Arucas
1:0
Mar 15, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
San Miguel vs Arucas
1:0
Nov 2, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Arucas vs San Miguel
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Arucas Compare

Top Goalscorer Garcia I.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Estevez M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

San Miguel Compare

Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Arucas 23 / 100
San Miguel 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Arucas San Miguel

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick San Miguel Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Arucas's goal record stands at 63% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

San Miguel's defensive record shows goals conceded in 77% of 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.25 goals when they meet.

Arucas has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Arucas VS San Miguel
0.88 Goals Scored 1
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Arucas

(Home)
10 May
CD Marino
1 : 2
Arucas
03 May
Arucas
0 : 1
Mensajero
25 Apr
Tenerife C
1 : 1
Arucas
22 Apr
Union Sur Yaiza
3 : 0
Arucas
18 Apr
Arucas
0 : 0
San Bartolome
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San Miguel

(Away)
10 May
Las Palmas C
0 : 1
San Miguel
03 May
San Miguel
1 : 1
Panaderia
26 Apr
Telde
1 : 3
San Miguel
18 Apr
San Miguel
2 : 0
CD Marino
12 Apr
Mensajero
1 : 0
San Miguel
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Atletico Paso 34 18 13 3 51:19 67
2 UD San Fernando 34 19 9 6 49:23 66
3 Mensajero 34 18 9 7 51:31 63
4 Tamaraceite 34 19 6 9 56:36 63
5 Panaderia 34 15 10 9 47:33 55
6 Las Palmas C 34 15 9 10 58:42 54
7 Tenerife C 34 14 10 10 49:46 52
8 Villa Santa Brigida 34 15 5 14 42:35 50
9 Lanzarote 34 12 12 10 45:36 48
10 Real Union Tenerife 34 12 9 13 34:32 45
11 San Miguel 34 10 9 15 37:43 39
12 CD Marino 34 8 15 11 44:40 39
13 Union Sur Yaiza 34 10 8 16 33:43 38
14 San Bartolome 34 8 12 14 30:55 36
15 Arucas 34 7 12 15 31:47 33
16 Herbania 34 7 11 16 39:58 32
17 SD Tenisca 34 6 7 21 32:68 25
18 Telde 34 5 10 19 30:71 25
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 12 2025/2026 (Play Offs)