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Arys vs Aktobe

Kazakhstan Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan Cup
Our Tip

Match Events

27' Event
Shushenachev A.
37' Event
Erlanov T.
Assist: Pastoriza A.
42' Event
Kuatbekuly K.
Own Goal

AI Match Summary

Aktobe in this Kazakhstan Cup tie, finishing 0-4. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

13%
Arys
17%
Draws
70%
Aktobe
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Aktobe

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence
  • Aktobe have won more games recently than Arys.
  • Aktobe are the model's pick here, at 70%.
  • Aktobe arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Aktobe, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.8%
Arys Clean Sheet 14%
Aktobe Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Arys Aktobe
Matches Played 28 31
Wins 6 13
Draws 2 5
Losses 20 13
Goals Scored 1.13 1.38
Goals Conceded 1.88 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.88 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 9, 2026 Kazakhstan Cup
Arys vs Aktobe
0:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Arys Compare

Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Aktobe Compare

Top Goalscorer Shushenachev A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Erlanov T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Arys 15 / 100
Aktobe 77 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Arys Aktobe

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AKT Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:3
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Arys's goal record stands at 68% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Defensive concern: Aktobe conceded in 74% of 31 recent games.

Arys has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Arys VS Aktobe
1.13 Goals Scored 1.38
1.88 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Arys

(Home)
16 Jul
Arys
0 : 4
Turan
09 Jul
Akademiya Ontustik
1 : 2
Arys
03 Jul
Arys
3 : 2
Yelimay Semey 2
25 Jun
Aktobe 2
3 : 1
Arys
18 Jun
Arys
1 : 2
Kaspij Aktau 2
Page 1 of 6

Aktobe

(Away)
19 Jul
Altai
2 : 4
Aktobe
12 Jul
FC Astana
3 : 2
Aktobe
05 Jul
Aktobe
2 : 1
Zhetysu Taldykorgan
27 Jun
Zhetysu Taldykorgan
1 : 0
Aktobe
21 Jun
Aktobe
2 : 0
FC Astana
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/16-finals
Akademiya Ontustik2
Ordabasy4
FC Ekibastuz0
Kaspij Aktau4
Jas Qyran0
Atyrau4
Karshiga Almaty0
Zhetysu Taldykorgan1
Arys0
Aktobe4
Turan1
Yelimay Semey4
Jelaev Nan0
Altai2
Taraz0
Ulytau1
Talas0
Kaisar Kyzylorda2
Jaiyq1
Kairat Almaty3
BKS1
FC Astana2
Ansat0
Tobol8
Shakhter Karagandy2
Okzhetpes3
Chromtau1
Zhenis4
SD Family-
Ertis Pavlodar-
Khan Tengri0
Kyzylzhar1
1/8-finals
Ordabasy3
Kaspij Aktau0
Atyrau0
Zhetysu Taldykorgan2
Aktobe2
Yelimay Semey1
Altai4
Ulytau3
Kaisar Kyzylorda2
Kairat Almaty1
FC Astana1
Tobol2
Okzhetpes2
Zhenis3
Ertis Pavlodar1
Kyzylzhar2
Quarter-finals
Ordabasy1
Zhetysu Taldykorgan0
Aktobe1
Altai2
Kaisar Kyzylorda2
Tobol1
Zhenis2
Kyzylzhar0
Semi-finals
Ordabasy3
Altai1
Kaisar Kyzylorda-
Zhenis-
Final
TBD-
TBD-