Sport Picks
Arzachena vs Sarrabus Ogliastra
Italy
Coppa Italia Serie D 2022/2023 
Match Events
60'
60'
Nurchi S.
AI Match Summary
This match ends 0-1, with Sarrabus Ogliastra advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
51%
30%
19%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Arzachena
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
51%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Arzachena come out ahead of Sarrabus Ogliastra on wins alone.
- Model gives Arzachena a 51% chance of winning this.
- Arzachena have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Sarrabus Ogliastra, who have won 1 of the last 3 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Arzachena Clean Sheet 19%
Sarrabus Ogliastra Clean Sheet 12%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Arzachena | Sarrabus Ogliastra |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 37 |
| Wins | 14 | 13 |
| Draws | 6 | 11 |
| Losses | 10 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 1.47 | 1.27 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.2 | 1.24 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.17 | 1.24 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jan 8, 2023 Serie D - Group G
Sarrabus Ogliastra vs Arzachena
1:1
Nov 2, 2022 Coppa Italia Serie D
Arzachena vs Sarrabus Ogliastra
0:1
Sep 4, 2022 Serie D - Group G
Arzachena vs Sarrabus Ogliastra
2:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Arzachena Compare
Avg xG / game 0.9
Avg xA / game 0.58
Sarrabus Ogliastra Compare
Top Goalscorer Nurchi S.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.13
Avg xA / game 0.69
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Arzachena 85 / 100
Sarrabus Ogliastra 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Arzachena Sarrabus Ogliastra
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Arzachena Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Recent resilience: Arzachena stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.
Arzachena found the back of the net in 73% of recent matches (30 games).
Sarrabus Ogliastra's defensive record shows goals conceded in 68% of 37 matches.
Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.
Scoring Trends
- VS Sarrabus Ogliastra
0 Goals Scored 1.38
0 Goals Conceded 1.13
0% Over 1.5 75%
0% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Arzachena
(Home) 14 May
Casertana
3 : 3 Arzachena
07 May
Arzachena
2 : 1 Ilvamaddalena
30 Apr
SS Nola 1925
1 : 2 Arzachena
23 Apr
Arzachena
3 : 0 Palmese 1914
16 Apr
Aprilia
1 : 3 Arzachena
Page 1 of 6
07 May
Arzachena
2 : 1 Ilvamaddalena
23 Apr
Arzachena
3 : 0 Palmese 1914
06 Apr
Arzachena
3 : 2 Angri
19 Mar
Arzachena
0 : 1 Casertana
05 Mar
Arzachena
1 : 1 Sorrento
Page 1 of 3
Sarrabus Ogliastra
(Away) 27 Sept
Sarrabus Ogliastra
2 : 2 Unipomezia
20 Sept
Albalonga
1 : 1 Sarrabus Ogliastra
16 Sept
Sarrabus Ogliastra
0 : 2 Certosa V. Campagnano
13 Sept
Anzio Calcio 1924
0 : 1 Sarrabus Ogliastra
06 Sept
Sarrabus Ogliastra
1 : 2 Monastir
Page 1 of 8
20 Sept
Albalonga
1 : 1 Sarrabus Ogliastra
13 Sept
Anzio Calcio 1924
0 : 1 Sarrabus Ogliastra
26 Apr
Valmontone
0 : 1 Sarrabus Ogliastra
19 Apr
Real Monterotondo
2 : 1 Sarrabus Ogliastra
02 Apr
Cassino
1 : 1 Sarrabus Ogliastra
Page 1 of 4
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/32-finals
Chisola 1
Bra 3
Ligorna 2
Sestri Levante 1
Casale 0
Derthona FbC 1
Crema 2
Ciserano-Bergamo 1
Franciacorta 3
Breno 1
Varesina 0
Varese FC 1
Arconatese 3
Caronnese 0
Giana Erminio 2
Alcione Milano 1
Cjarlins Muzane 1
Dolomiti Bellunesi 2
Clodiense 2
Legnago Salus 1
Caldiero Terme 1
Montebelluna 2
Este 1
Adriese 3
Carpi 1
United Riccione 2
G.S. Bagnolese 3
Correggese 2
Seravezza Pozzi 3
Pistoiese 0
Prato 1
Poggibonsi 0
Lupa Frascati 1
Arezzo 2
Sporting Trestina 0
Orvietana 2
Porto D'Ascoli 1
Pineto 2
US Tolentino 2
Fano 1
Arzachena 0
Sarrabus Ogliastra 1
Roma City 0
Tivoli Calcio 3
Trastevere Calcio 2
Flaminia 1
Puteolana Internapoli 1
Molfetta Calcio 0
Cavese 2
Vastogirardi 1
Citta di Fasano 0
Altamura 1
Casertana 3
Real Normanna 2
Francavilla 1
Lavello 0
Nocerina 3
Portici 1906 4
Lamezia Terme 3
Cittanovese 0
AS Acireale 2
Paterno 0
S. Agata 1
Trapani 2
1/16-finals
Bra 2
Ligorna 0
Derthona FbC 1
Crema 2
Franciacorta 0
Varese FC 1
Arconatese 1
Giana Erminio 3
Dolomiti Bellunesi 0
Clodiense 1
Montebelluna 1
Adriese 2
United Riccione 3
G.S. Bagnolese 1
Seravezza Pozzi 2
Prato 3
Arezzo 2
Orvietana 1
Pineto 5
US Tolentino 1
Sarrabus Ogliastra 1
Tivoli Calcio 0
Trastevere Calcio 0
Puteolana Internapoli 1
Cavese 2
Altamura 0
Casertana 0
Francavilla 2
Portici 1906 1
Lamezia Terme 2
AS Acireale 0
Trapani 7
1/8-finals
Bra 1
Crema 3
Varese FC 0
Giana Erminio 2
Clodiense 0
Adriese 6
United Riccione 1
Prato 0
Arezzo 1
Pineto 2
Sarrabus Ogliastra 1
Puteolana Internapoli 2
Cavese 1
Francavilla 0
Lamezia Terme 2
Trapani 1
Quarter-finals
Crema 1
Giana Erminio 2
Adriese 3
United Riccione 1
Pineto 4
Puteolana Internapoli 1
Cavese 1
Lamezia Terme 2
Semi-finals
Giana Erminio 1
Adriese 0
Pineto 1
Lamezia Terme 0
Final
Giana Erminio 2
Pineto 4
