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Arzua vs Lugo B

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

60' Event
Ponce C.
67' Event
Maceira J.
(Penalty)
77' Event
Roson D.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2023/2024 game between Arzua and Lugo B finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Lugo B.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

22%
Arzua
20%
Draws
58%
Lugo B
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Lugo B

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Lugo B come out ahead of Arzua on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Lugo B's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2023/2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Arzua Clean Sheet 16%
Lugo B Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Arzua Lugo B
Matches Played 30 36
Wins 4 14
Draws 5 11
Losses 21 11
Goals Scored 0.73 1.22
Goals Conceded 1.9 0.97
Expected Goals (xG) 1.23 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 1, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Arzua vs Lugo B
1:2
Jan 7, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Lugo B vs Arzua
2:0
Aug 19, 2023 Club Friendly
Arzua vs Lugo B
1:0
Mar 12, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Arzua vs Lugo B
1:1
Nov 7, 2021 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Lugo B vs Arzua
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Arzua Compare

Top Goalscorer Ponce C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.95
Avg xA / game 0.61

Lugo B Compare

Top Goalscorer Roson D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Arzua 10 / 100
Lugo B 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Arzua Lugo B

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lugo B Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lugo B let in goals in 67% of their last 36 matches.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Arzua's goal record stands at 53% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Arzua has registered 1 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Arzua VS Lugo B
0 Goals Scored 1
2 Goals Conceded 1.25
100% Over 1.5 75%
0% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Arzua

(Home)
26 Aug
Estradense
2 : 0
Arzua
11 May
Arzua
1 : 0
Silva SD
05 May
Estradense
2 : 0
Arzua
01 May
Arzua
1 : 2
Lugo B
27 Apr
Barbadas-Bentraces
2 : 0
Arzua
Page 1 of 6

Lugo B

(Away)
10 May
Racing Club Villalbes
2 : 1
Lugo B
03 May
Lugo B
5 : 1
Barbadas-Bentraces
26 Apr
Alondras
0 : 4
Lugo B
19 Apr
Viveiro
0 : 0
Lugo B
11 Apr
Lugo B
0 : 0
Gran Pena
Page 1 of 8

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Bergantinos 34 21 10 3 49:19 73
2 Gran Pena 34 15 16 3 48:30 61
3 Arosa SC 34 15 13 6 39:23 58
4 UD Ourense 34 15 10 9 47:34 55
5 Sarriana 34 14 8 12 43:35 50
6 Atletico Arteixo 34 11 14 9 46:39 47
7 Somozas 34 12 9 13 43:39 45
8 Estradense 34 11 12 11 31:32 45
9 Barbadas-Bentraces 34 10 14 10 33:34 44
10 Viveiro 34 12 8 14 39:42 44
11 Alondras 34 10 14 10 37:36 44
12 Silva SD 34 11 10 13 35:35 43
13 Lugo B 34 11 10 13 32:34 43
14 Betanzos CF 34 10 13 11 35:31 43
15 Rapido de Bouzas 34 11 9 14 38:40 42
16 Paiosaco 34 10 11 13 30:42 41
17 Pontevedra B 34 7 5 22 27:65 26
18 Arzua 34 4 6 24 24:66 18
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2023/2024 (Play Offs)