Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Arzua vs Paiosaco

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

18' Event
Hurtado I.
43' Event
Sande Fuentes J.
90' Event
Parafita R.

AI Match Summary

Paiosaco in this Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2023/2024 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Paiosaco.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%
Arzua
15%
Draws
65%
Paiosaco
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Paiosaco

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Paiosaco lately — more wins on the board than Arzua.
  • Paiosaco are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Arzua Clean Sheet 18%
Paiosaco Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Arzua Paiosaco
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 4 9
Draws 5 9
Losses 21 12
Goals Scored 0.73 0.93
Goals Conceded 1.9 1.33
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 21, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Arzua vs Paiosaco
1:2
Dec 3, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Paiosaco vs Arzua
2:2
Feb 5, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Paiosaco vs Arzua
3:2
Oct 2, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Arzua vs Paiosaco
1:2
Mar 14, 2021 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Paiosaco vs Arzua
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Arzua Compare

Top Goalscorer Hurtado I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Paiosaco Compare

Top Goalscorer Sande Fuentes J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Parafita R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Arzua 23 / 100
Paiosaco 48 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Arzua Paiosaco

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Paiosaco Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.80 goals as a typical output.

Defensive concern: Paiosaco conceded in 77% of 30 recent games.

Arzua scored in 53% of their last 30 games.

Solid form: Arzua remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Arzua VS Paiosaco
1 Goals Scored 0.75
1.88 Goals Conceded 0.88
88% Over 1.5 50%
75% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Arzua

(Home)
26 Aug
Estradense
2 : 0
Arzua
11 May
Arzua
1 : 0
Silva SD
05 May
Estradense
2 : 0
Arzua
01 May
Arzua
1 : 2
Lugo B
27 Apr
Barbadas-Bentraces
2 : 0
Arzua
Page 1 of 6

Paiosaco

(Away)
12 May
Paiosaco
1 : 0
Lugo B
05 May
UD Ourense
3 : 0
Paiosaco
01 May
Barbadas-Bentraces
0 : 0
Paiosaco
27 Apr
Paiosaco
1 : 0
Pontevedra B
21 Apr
Arzua
1 : 2
Paiosaco
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Bergantinos 34 21 10 3 49:19 73
2 Gran Pena 34 15 16 3 48:30 61
3 Arosa SC 34 15 13 6 39:23 58
4 UD Ourense 34 15 10 9 47:34 55
5 Sarriana 34 14 8 12 43:35 50
6 Atletico Arteixo 34 11 14 9 46:39 47
7 Somozas 34 12 9 13 43:39 45
8 Estradense 34 11 12 11 31:32 45
9 Barbadas-Bentraces 34 10 14 10 33:34 44
10 Viveiro 34 12 8 14 39:42 44
11 Alondras 34 10 14 10 37:36 44
12 Silva SD 34 11 10 13 35:35 43
13 Lugo B 34 11 10 13 32:34 43
14 Betanzos CF 34 10 13 11 35:31 43
15 Rapido de Bouzas 34 11 9 14 38:40 42
16 Paiosaco 34 10 11 13 30:42 41
17 Pontevedra B 34 7 5 22 27:65 26
18 Arzua 34 4 6 24 24:66 18
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2023/2024 (Play Offs)