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Stadium Background

AS Marsa vs Olympique Beja

Tunisia Tunisia

Ligue Professionnelle 1 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

13' Event
Chaouch M.
38'
46'

AI Match Summary

The Ligue Professionnelle 1 2025/2026 game between AS Marsa and Olympique Beja finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward AS Marsa.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
AS Marsa
20%
Draws
33%
Olympique Beja
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: AS Marsa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and AS Marsa come out ahead of Olympique Beja on wins alone.
  • 47% — that's where the model lands on AS Marsa taking it.
  • Regular Ligue Professionnelle 1 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 22.8%
AS Marsa Clean Sheet 68%
Olympique Beja Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AS Marsa Olympique Beja
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 12 10
Draws 2 3
Losses 15 16
Goals Scored 1.07 0.76
Goals Conceded 1.21 1.52
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 3, 2026 Ligue Professionnelle 1
AS Marsa vs Olympique Beja
1:0
Dec 30, 2025 Club Friendly
AS Marsa vs Olympique Beja
1:0
Oct 4, 2025 Ligue Professionnelle 1
Olympique Beja vs AS Marsa
0:6
Jun 22, 2024 Tunisia Cup
Olympique Beja vs AS Marsa
3:2
May 26, 2024 Ligue Professionnelle 1
AS Marsa vs Olympique Beja
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

AS Marsa Compare

Top Goalscorer Chaouch M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Olympique Beja Compare

Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AS Marsa 50 / 100
Olympique Beja 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AS Marsa Olympique Beja

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AS Marsa Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.20 goals.

Defensive concern: Olympique Beja conceded in 76% of 29 recent games.

Solid form: AS Marsa remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

AS Marsa's goal record stands at 55% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Scoring Trends

AS Marsa VS Olympique Beja
1.13 Goals Scored 1.13
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.25
50% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

AS Marsa

(Home)
08 Aug
Esperance Tunis
1 : 2
AS Marsa
12 May
Jeunesse Sportive
2 : 2
AS Marsa
09 May
AS Marsa
0 : 3
CS Sfaxien
04 May
CA Bizertin
1 : 2
AS Marsa
30 Apr
AS Marsa
1 : 0
Zarzis
Page 1 of 6

Olympique Beja

(Away)
14 May
Club Africain
1 : 1
Olympique Beja
08 May
Olympique Beja
2 : 1
Jeunesse Sportive
03 May
CS Sfaxien
2 : 0
Olympique Beja
30 Apr
Olympique Beja
1 : 0
CA Bizertin
26 Apr
Zarzis
2 : 0
Olympique Beja
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Club Africain 30 19 9 2 43:10 66
2 Esperance Tunis 30 18 9 3 45:11 63
3 CS Sfaxien 30 18 8 4 44:13 62
4 Stade Tunisien 30 12 12 6 28:14 48
5 Monastir 30 11 12 7 28:19 45
6 Zarzis 30 11 8 11 30:28 41
7 Etoile Sahel 30 11 8 11 28:30 41
8 Metlaoui 30 9 13 8 19:25 40
9 Jeunesse Sportive 30 10 6 14 24:33 36
10 Ben Guerdane 30 8 11 11 18:22 35
11 AS Marsa 30 11 2 17 26:33 35
12 CA Bizertin 30 8 9 13 18:29 33
13 Olympique Beja 30 9 5 16 18:39 32
14 JS Kairouan 30 9 4 17 20:41 31
15 Soliman 30 6 9 15 15:31 27
16 AS Gabes 30 3 9 18 11:37 18
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligue 2 2026/2027 (Main)