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Stadium Background

ASC Jaraaf vs Guediawaye

Senegal Senegal

Ligue 1 2025/2026 Stade de Diaraf, Dakar
ASC Jaraaf Logo

ASC Jaraaf

2 - 1
FT
Guediawaye Logo

Guediawaye

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Ligue 1 2025/2026 game between ASC Jaraaf and Guediawaye finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward ASC Jaraaf.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%
ASC Jaraaf
35%
Draws
20%
Guediawaye
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: ASC Jaraaf

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • ASC Jaraaf carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans ASC Jaraaf's way, sitting at 70%.
  • Regular Ligue 1 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 64.6%
ASC Jaraaf Clean Sheet 20%
Guediawaye Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric ASC Jaraaf Guediawaye
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 9 7
Draws 14 8
Losses 7 15
Goals Scored 0.7 0.97
Goals Conceded 0.53 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 11, 2026 Ligue 1
ASC Jaraaf vs Guediawaye
2:1
Dec 14, 2025 Ligue 1
Guediawaye vs ASC Jaraaf
1:2
Jun 15, 2025 Ligue 1
ASC Jaraaf vs Guediawaye
1:0
Feb 23, 2025 Ligue 1
Guediawaye vs ASC Jaraaf
0:0
Feb 25, 2024 Ligue 1
Guediawaye vs ASC Jaraaf
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

ASC Jaraaf 67 / 100
Guediawaye 15 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
ASC Jaraaf Guediawaye

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ASC Jaraaf Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Solid form: ASC Jaraaf remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Defensive concern: Guediawaye conceded in 70% of 30 recent games.

Difficult form: Guediawaye registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

ASC Jaraaf's goal record stands at 47% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Scoring Trends

ASC Jaraaf VS Guediawaye
0.75 Goals Scored 1
0.5 Goals Conceded 1.25
38% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

ASC Jaraaf

(Home)
04 Jun
AS Camberene
0 : 2
ASC Jaraaf
22 May
ASC Jaraaf
0 : 0
Casa
17 May
ASC Jaraaf
3 : 0
Dakar Sacre-Coeur
13 May
Pikine
0 : 0
ASC Jaraaf
10 May
ASC Jaraaf
0 : 0
Sonacos
Page 1 of 6

Guediawaye

(Away)
04 Jun
Guediawaye
0 : 1
Teungueth
22 May
Mbour
0 : 2
Guediawaye
17 May
Guediawaye
2 : 3
Wally Daan
13 May
AJEL
1 : 0
Guediawaye
10 May
Guediawaye
1 : 1
Ouakam
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Teungueth 30 13 15 2 21:6 54
2 AJEL 30 15 9 6 27:19 54
3 Generation Foot 30 13 9 8 37:22 48
4 US Goree 30 11 15 4 29:14 48
5 Wally Daan 30 10 14 6 29:24 44
6 Ouakam 30 8 18 4 23:16 42
7 ASC Jaraaf 30 9 14 7 21:16 41
8 Casa 30 7 19 4 29:20 40
9 Pikine 30 7 13 10 20:19 34
10 Mbour 30 5 18 7 18:21 33
11 ASC HLM 30 5 18 7 18:24 33
12 Dakar Sacre-Coeur 30 5 16 9 24:37 31
13 Guediawaye 30 7 8 15 29:34 28
14 Linguere 30 3 16 11 22:36 25
15 Sonacos 30 4 13 13 18:39 25
16 AS Camberene 30 3 15 12 16:34 24
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)