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Ascoli vs Empoli - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie B Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Ascoli Piceno
Sat, Oct 17, 2026
VS
01:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Ascoli host Empoli in the Serie B. Recent form is the clearest guide to this one. Ascoli have averaged 1.67 scored and 0.78 conceded recently, against Empoli's 1.11 scored and 1.54 conceded. Head-to-head, Ascoli have won 2 to Empoli's 2, with 1 draws. They last met on May 1, 2021, ending 2:0. The numbers (1.25 xG vs 1.06) point toward Ascoli. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 1-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

58%
Ascoli
20%
Draws
22%
Empoli
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Ascoli

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Ascoli have won more games recently than Empoli.
  • Model gives Ascoli a 58% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Serie B form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.8%
Ascoli Clean Sheet 68%
Empoli Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ascoli Empoli
Matches Played 27 28
Wins 17 5
Draws 4 10
Losses 6 13
Goals Scored 1.67 1.11
Goals Conceded 0.78 1.54
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 1, 2021 Serie B
Ascoli vs Empoli
2:0
Dec 30, 2020 Serie B
Empoli vs Ascoli
1:1
Jul 13, 2020 Serie B
Ascoli vs Empoli
1:0
Dec 7, 2019 Serie B
Empoli vs Ascoli
2:1
Feb 10, 2018 Serie B
Ascoli vs Empoli
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ascoli 95 / 100
Empoli 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ascoli Empoli

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ascoli Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ascoli's goal record stands at 81% scoring rate across 27 recent games.

Defensive concern: Empoli conceded in 82% of 28 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.

Ascoli went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Ascoli VS Empoli
1.5 Goals Scored 0.75
1.38 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Ascoli

(Home)
10 Oct
Sudtirol
0 : 0
Ascoli
19 Sept
Ascoli
3 : 1
Avellino
12 Sept
Padova
1 : 0
Ascoli
05 Sept
Ascoli
1 : 0
Benevento
29 Aug
Ascoli
1 : 1
Carrarese
Page 1 of 6

Empoli

(Away)
10 Oct
Empoli
2 : 4
Palermo
20 Sept
Modena
2 : 1
Empoli
11 Sept
Empoli
0 : 1
Arezzo
05 Sept
Carrarese
0 : 1
Empoli
30 Aug
Mantova
3 : 1
Empoli
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Palermo 6 5 1 0 14:7 16
2 Mantova 6 4 2 0 13:6 14
3 Modena 6 4 1 1 11:6 13
4 Sudtirol 6 3 3 0 9:3 12
5 Ascoli 6 3 2 1 7:4 11
6 Avellino 6 3 1 2 11:7 10
7 Pisa 6 3 1 2 11:8 10
8 Benevento 6 3 1 2 8:5 10
9 Verona 6 2 1 3 12:10 7
10 Padova 6 2 1 3 5:8 7
11 Cesena 6 1 4 1 7:8 7
12 Arezzo 6 2 1 3 6:13 7
13 Empoli 6 2 0 4 6:10 6
14 Entella 6 1 3 2 8:7 6
15 Cremonese 6 1 3 2 5:7 6
16 Vicenza 6 1 2 3 7:13 5
17 Carrarese 6 1 1 4 4:6 4
18 Sampdoria 6 1 1 4 6:13 4
19 Catanzaro 6 1 0 5 6:12 3
20 Juve Stabia 6 1 3 2 5:8 2
Promotion - Serie A 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie B (Play Out)