Sport Picks

Stadium Background

ASD Ugento vs Casarano

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group H 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

15' Event
Malcore G.
35' Event
Sanchez J.
56' Event
Loiodice N.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

Casarano in this Serie D - Group H 2024/2025 matchup, with the score ending 2-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Casarano.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
ASD Ugento
20%
Draws
29%
Casarano
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: ASD Ugento

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Casarano have won more games recently than ASD Ugento.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • Regular Serie D - Group H 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
ASD Ugento Clean Sheet 19%
Casarano Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric ASD Ugento Casarano
Matches Played 30 33
Wins 9 17
Draws 5 5
Losses 16 11
Goals Scored 1.03 1.73
Goals Conceded 1.63 1.15
Expected Goals (xG) 1.17 1.30
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 30, 2025 Serie D - Group H
ASD Ugento vs Casarano
2:3
Nov 17, 2024 Serie D - Group H
Casarano vs ASD Ugento
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

ASD Ugento Compare

Top Goalscorer Sanchez J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ancora F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.9
Avg xA / game 0.58

Casarano Compare

Top Goalscorer Malcore G.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Milicevic M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.18
Avg xA / game 0.72

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

ASD Ugento 32 / 100
Casarano 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
ASD Ugento Casarano

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Attacking prowess: ASD Ugento scored in 60% of their last 30 outings.

Casarano has conceded goals in 73% of their last 33 outings.

Solid form: ASD Ugento remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

- VS Casarano
0 Goals Scored 1.5
0 Goals Conceded 1.13
0% Over 1.5 100%
0% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

ASD Ugento

(Home)
11 May
ASD Ugento
0 : 1
Manfredonia
04 May
Virtus Francavilla
1 : 1
ASD Ugento
27 Apr
ASD Ugento
1 : 4
Matera
17 Apr
Citta di Fasano
0 : 2
ASD Ugento
13 Apr
ASD Ugento
2 : 0
Martina Calcio
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Casarano

(Away)
16 Aug
Bari
1 : 0
Casarano
20 May
Union Brescia
0 : 0
Casarano
17 May
Casarano
0 : 3
Union Brescia
13 May
Renate
0 : 3
Casarano
10 May
Casarano
0 : 2
Renate
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Casarano 34 21 11 2 72:30 74
2 Nocerina 34 20 10 4 64:27 70
3 Martina Calcio 34 17 11 6 48:28 62
4 Fidelis Andria 34 16 9 9 41:29 57
5 Citta di Fasano 34 13 11 10 45:32 50
6 Matera 34 12 13 9 51:47 49
7 Virtus Francavilla 34 12 11 11 41:34 47
8 A.C.D. Nardo 34 13 8 13 47:45 47
9 Ischia 34 11 12 11 39:45 45
10 Palmese 1914 34 10 12 12 41:45 42
11 Gravina 34 11 9 14 43:46 42
12 Francavilla 34 11 8 15 28:34 41
13 Acerrana 34 11 8 15 37:50 41
14 ASD Ugento 34 10 7 17 33:51 37
15 Manfredonia 34 8 11 15 33:51 35
16 Brindisi 34 9 14 11 44:43 27
17 Angri 34 6 8 20 35:69 26
18 Costa Amalfi 34 3 11 20 26:62 20
Promotion - Serie D - Group H 2024/2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group H 2024/2025 (Play Out)