Sport Picks

Stadium Background

ASD Ugento vs Fidelis Andria

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group H 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

20' Event
Sanchez J.
24' Event
Lezzi N.
45' Event
Mateus Castro

AI Match Summary

ASD Ugento in this Serie D - Group H 2024/2025 matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored ASD Ugento.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
ASD Ugento
30%
Draws
37%
Fidelis Andria
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Fidelis Andria

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • ASD Ugento haven't matched Fidelis Andria's recent run of results.
  • 37% — that's where the model lands on Fidelis Andria taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 19%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
ASD Ugento Clean Sheet 27%
Fidelis Andria Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric ASD Ugento Fidelis Andria
Matches Played 30 34
Wins 9 13
Draws 5 8
Losses 16 13
Goals Scored 1.03 1.03
Goals Conceded 1.63 0.88
Expected Goals (xG) 0.92 0.74
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 23, 2025 Serie D - Group H
ASD Ugento vs Fidelis Andria
3:1
Oct 23, 2024 Serie D - Group H
Fidelis Andria vs ASD Ugento
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

ASD Ugento Compare

Top Goalscorer Sanchez J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Lezzi N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.71
Avg xA / game 0.46

Fidelis Andria Compare

Top Goalscorer Mateus Castro
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.67
Avg xA / game 0.41

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

ASD Ugento 30 / 100
Fidelis Andria 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
ASD Ugento Fidelis Andria

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Fidelis Andria Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.50 goals as a typical output.

Attacking prowess: ASD Ugento scored in 60% of their last 30 outings.

Recent resilience: ASD Ugento stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Fidelis Andria's defensive record shows goals conceded in 56% of 34 matches.

Scoring Trends

- VS Fidelis Andria
0 Goals Scored 0.38
0 Goals Conceded 0.63
0% Over 1.5 13%
0% Over 2.5 13%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

ASD Ugento

(Home)
11 May
ASD Ugento
0 : 1
Manfredonia
04 May
Virtus Francavilla
1 : 1
ASD Ugento
27 Apr
ASD Ugento
1 : 4
Matera
17 Apr
Citta di Fasano
0 : 2
ASD Ugento
13 Apr
ASD Ugento
2 : 0
Martina Calcio
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Fidelis Andria

(Away)
03 May
Fidelis Andria
1 : 2
Pompei
26 Apr
Manfredonia
0 : 0
Fidelis Andria
19 Apr
Fidelis Andria
2 : 1
Sarnese
12 Apr
Virtus Francavilla
0 : 2
Fidelis Andria
02 Apr
Fidelis Andria
0 : 0
Francavilla
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Casarano 34 21 11 2 72:30 74
2 Nocerina 34 20 10 4 64:27 70
3 Martina Calcio 34 17 11 6 48:28 62
4 Fidelis Andria 34 16 9 9 41:29 57
5 Citta di Fasano 34 13 11 10 45:32 50
6 Matera 34 12 13 9 51:47 49
7 Virtus Francavilla 34 12 11 11 41:34 47
8 A.C.D. Nardo 34 13 8 13 47:45 47
9 Ischia 34 11 12 11 39:45 45
10 Palmese 1914 34 10 12 12 41:45 42
11 Gravina 34 11 9 14 43:46 42
12 Francavilla 34 11 8 15 28:34 41
13 Acerrana 34 11 8 15 37:50 41
14 ASD Ugento 34 10 7 17 33:51 37
15 Manfredonia 34 8 11 15 33:51 35
16 Brindisi 34 9 14 11 44:43 27
17 Angri 34 6 8 20 35:69 26
18 Costa Amalfi 34 3 11 20 26:62 20
Promotion - Serie D - Group H 2024/2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group H 2024/2025 (Play Out)