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Stadium Background

ASD Ugento vs Francavilla

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group H 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

83' Event
Macri C.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group H 2024/2025 game between ASD Ugento and Francavilla finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Francavilla.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
ASD Ugento
15%
Draws
39%
Francavilla
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: ASD Ugento

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • ASD Ugento haven't matched Francavilla's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans ASD Ugento's way, sitting at 36%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 36%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.8%
ASD Ugento Clean Sheet 20%
Francavilla Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric ASD Ugento Francavilla
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 9 12
Draws 5 5
Losses 16 13
Goals Scored 1.03 1.2
Goals Conceded 1.63 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.35 1.11
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 9, 2025 Serie D - Group H
ASD Ugento vs Francavilla
0:1
Oct 13, 2024 Serie D - Group H
Francavilla vs ASD Ugento
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

ASD Ugento Compare

Avg xG / game 1.04
Avg xA / game 0.68

Francavilla Compare

Top Goalscorer Macri C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.62

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

ASD Ugento 36 / 100
Francavilla 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
ASD Ugento Francavilla

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

ASD Ugento found the back of the net in 60% of recent matches (30 games).

Francavilla's defensive record shows goals conceded in 73% of 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 1.50 goals when they meet.

ASD Ugento went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Francavilla
0 Goals Scored 1.13
0 Goals Conceded 1.5
0% Over 1.5 88%
0% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

ASD Ugento

(Home)
11 May
ASD Ugento
0 : 1
Manfredonia
04 May
Virtus Francavilla
1 : 1
ASD Ugento
27 Apr
ASD Ugento
1 : 4
Matera
17 Apr
Citta di Fasano
0 : 2
ASD Ugento
13 Apr
ASD Ugento
2 : 0
Martina Calcio
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Francavilla

(Away)
20 Sept
Melfi
2 : 1
Francavilla
16 Sept
Francavilla
0 : 1
Palmese 1914
13 Sept
Bisceglie
2 : 1
Francavilla
06 Sept
Francavilla
1 : 0
Ischia
03 May
Francavilla
2 : 0
Afragolese
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Casarano 34 21 11 2 72:30 74
2 Nocerina 34 20 10 4 64:27 70
3 Martina Calcio 34 17 11 6 48:28 62
4 Fidelis Andria 34 16 9 9 41:29 57
5 Citta di Fasano 34 13 11 10 45:32 50
6 Matera 34 12 13 9 51:47 49
7 Virtus Francavilla 34 12 11 11 41:34 47
8 A.C.D. Nardo 34 13 8 13 47:45 47
9 Ischia 34 11 12 11 39:45 45
10 Palmese 1914 34 10 12 12 41:45 42
11 Gravina 34 11 9 14 43:46 42
12 Francavilla 34 11 8 15 28:34 41
13 Acerrana 34 11 8 15 37:50 41
14 ASD Ugento 34 10 7 17 33:51 37
15 Manfredonia 34 8 11 15 33:51 35
16 Brindisi 34 9 14 11 44:43 27
17 Angri 34 6 8 20 35:69 26
18 Costa Amalfi 34 3 11 20 26:62 20
Promotion - Serie D - Group H 2024/2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group H 2024/2025 (Play Out)