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Aserri vs Carmelita Prediction & H2H Stats

Costa Rica Costa Rica

Liga de Ascenso 2025/2026
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AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Liga de Ascenso 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Aserri
20%
Draws
40%
Carmelita
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Aserri haven't matched Carmelita's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Carmelita a 40% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Aserri Clean Sheet 23%
Carmelita Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aserri Carmelita
Matches Played 28 31
Wins 6 8
Draws 11 10
Losses 11 13
Goals Scored 0.96 1.23
Goals Conceded 1.75 1.39
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 28, 2026 Liga de Ascenso
Carmelita vs Aserri
1:2
Mar 31, 2026 Liga de Ascenso
Aserri vs Carmelita
0:0
Feb 15, 2026 Liga de Ascenso
Carmelita vs Aserri
2:2
Nov 2, 2025 Liga de Ascenso
Carmelita vs Aserri
1:1
Sep 19, 2025 Liga de Ascenso
Aserri vs Carmelita
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aserri 24 / 100
Carmelita 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aserri Carmelita

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Carmelita Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Aserri's goal record stands at 68% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Carmelita's defensive record shows goals conceded in 65% of 31 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Solid form: Aserri remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Aserri VS Carmelita
1 Goals Scored 1.13
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Aserri

(Home)
26 Sept
FC Moravia
1 : 0
Aserri
20 Sept
Aserri
1 : 0
Santa Ana
12 Sept
CS Uruguay
0 : 1
Aserri
06 Sept
Aserri
1 : 1
Cariari Pococi
28 Aug
Carmelita
1 : 2
Aserri
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Carmelita

(Away)
02 Oct
FC Moravia
0 : 3
Carmelita
26 Sept
Carmelita
1 : 0
Santa Ana
18 Sept
Carmelita
6 : 0
CS Uruguay
13 Sept
Cariari Pococi
1 : 1
Carmelita
07 Sept
Carmelita
1 : 2
Pitbulls
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League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 ADR Jicaral 14 9 3 2 25:12 30
2 Inter San Carlos 14 8 4 2 25:14 28
3 Quepos FC 14 9 1 4 30:21 28
4 Santa Cruz 14 4 5 5 19:17 17
5 Grecia 14 4 5 5 16:18 17
6 AD Sarchi 14 4 5 5 19:23 17
7 Cofutpa 14 2 4 8 14:27 10
8 Dep. Upala 14 0 5 9 15:31 5
9 Municipal Turrialba 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Liga de Ascenso 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Escorpiones 14 10 2 2 33:10 32
2 CS Uruguay 14 7 2 5 25:20 23
3 Pitbulls 14 6 4 4 20:16 22
4 FC Moravia 14 5 4 5 19:19 19
5 Cariari Pococi 14 3 6 5 19:23 15
6 Aserri 14 2 8 4 15:28 14
7 Santa Ana 13 3 3 7 19:28 12
8 Carmelita 13 2 5 6 10:16 11
9 Limon Black Star 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Liga de Ascenso 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)