Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Aston Villa U21 vs Newcastle Utd U21

England England

Premier League 2 Bodymoor Heath Training Ground, Birmingham
Aston Villa U21 Logo

Aston Villa U21

3 - 4
FT
Newcastle Utd U21 Logo

Newcastle Utd U21

Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Ferreira M.
Assist: Bailey S.
9' Event
Park Seung-soo
15' Event
Ferreira M.
(Penalty)
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Newcastle Utd U21 in this Premier League 2 matchup, with the score ending 3-4 — backing the pre-match view that favored Newcastle Utd U21.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Aston Villa U21
20%
Draws
38%
Newcastle Utd U21
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Aston Villa U21

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / Medium Confidence
  • Newcastle Utd U21 haven't matched Aston Villa U21's recent run of results.
  • Aston Villa U21 are the model's pick here, at 42%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Aston Villa U21 Clean Sheet 14%
Newcastle Utd U21 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aston Villa U21 Newcastle Utd U21
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 12 8
Draws 5 7
Losses 13 15
Goals Scored 1.5 1.63
Goals Conceded 1.63 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 6, 2026 Premier League 2
Aston Villa U21 vs Newcastle Utd U21
3:4
Oct 5, 2024 Premier League 2
Aston Villa U21 vs Newcastle Utd U21
2:3
Apr 29, 2024 Premier League 2
Newcastle Utd U21 vs Aston Villa U21
0:1
Jan 9, 2023 Premier League 2
Newcastle Utd U21 vs Aston Villa U21
0:2
Oct 14, 2022 Premier League 2
Aston Villa U21 vs Newcastle Utd U21
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aston Villa U21 Compare

Top Goalscorer Brannigan C.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Burrowes B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Newcastle Utd U21 Compare

Top Goalscorer Ferreira M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Park Seung-soo
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aston Villa U21 41 / 100
Newcastle Utd U21 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aston Villa U21 Newcastle Utd U21

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Newcastle Utd U21's defensive record shows goals conceded in 87% of 30 matches.

H2H data points to 3.60 goals as a typical output.

Aston Villa U21 found the back of the net in 70% of recent matches (30 games).

Aston Villa U21 went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Aston Villa U21 VS Newcastle Utd U21
1.5 Goals Scored 1.63
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Aston Villa U21

(Home)
01 Aug
Shrewsbury
3 : 2
Aston Villa U21
21 Jul
Tamworth
1 : 2
Aston Villa U21
01 May
Aston Villa U21
2 : 3
Manchester City U21
24 Apr
Southampton U21
3 : 4
Aston Villa U21
17 Apr
Stoke City U21
0 : 1
Aston Villa U21
Page 1 of 6

Newcastle Utd U21

(Away)
27 Apr
Swansea U21
2 : 0
Newcastle Utd U21
13 Apr
Newcastle Utd U21
1 : 1
Wolves U21
10 Apr
Manchester United U21
1 : 3
Newcastle Utd U21
20 Mar
Nottingham U21
3 : 0
Newcastle Utd U21
13 Mar
Newcastle Utd U21
2 : 0
Blackburn U21
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Chelsea U21 20 14 1 5 52:25 43
2 Manchester United U21 20 13 4 3 43:26 43
3 Manchester City U21 20 13 1 6 59:21 40
4 Fulham U21 20 11 5 4 48:32 38
5 Ipswich U21 20 12 2 6 45:45 38
6 Southampton U21 20 10 6 4 36:29 36
7 Liverpool U21 20 11 2 7 49:36 35
8 Tottenham U21 20 11 2 7 42:32 35
9 Leicester U21 20 9 4 7 48:42 31
10 Crystal Palace U21 20 9 4 7 36:31 31
11 Aston Villa U21 20 9 4 7 32:35 31
12 Brighton U21 20 8 6 6 38:25 30
13 West Ham U21 20 8 6 6 44:35 30
14 Arsenal U21 20 8 5 7 28:33 29
15 Sunderland U21 20 8 4 8 41:40 28
16 Middlesbrough U21 20 7 6 7 37:28 27
17 Nottingham U21 20 8 2 10 23:23 26
18 Everton U21 20 7 4 9 33:36 25
19 Reading U21 20 7 4 9 29:36 25
20 Stoke City U21 20 7 4 9 29:42 25
21 Newcastle Utd U21 20 6 6 8 30:35 24
22 Wolves U21 20 6 5 9 30:45 23
23 Norwich U21 20 5 5 10 32:42 20
24 Derby U21 20 5 5 10 26:44 20
25 Leeds U21 20 5 3 12 28:40 18
26 West Brom U21 20 5 3 12 26:41 18
27 Birmingham U21 20 4 5 11 26:52 17
28 Blackburn U21 20 4 2 14 27:46 14
29 Burnley U21 20 3 4 13 22:42 13
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