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Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Europe Europe

Conference League New Balance Arena, Bergamo
Thu, Nov 5, 2026
VS
05:45 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Atalanta host Kairat Almaty in the Conference League. This one's hard to separate. Recent numbers: Atalanta at 1.39 goals for, 1.39 against; Kairat Almaty at 1.68 for, 1 against. No recent head-to-head history to lean on here — form is the better guide. Model xG sits at 1.31 vs 1.25, favoring Kairat Almaty. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Atalanta
15%
Draws
46%
Kairat Almaty
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Kairat Almaty

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Kairat Almaty have won more games recently than Atalanta.
  • Atalanta are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Atalanta Clean Sheet 19%
Kairat Almaty Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Atalanta Kairat Almaty
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 11 16
Draws 7 4
Losses 10 8
Goals Scored 1.39 1.68
Goals Conceded 1.39 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Atalanta 58 / 100
Kairat Almaty 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Atalanta Kairat Almaty

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Atalanta Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Atalanta scored in 82% of their last 28 games.

Kairat Almaty's defensive record shows goals conceded in 68% of 28 matches.

Atalanta went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Kairat Almaty lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Atalanta VS Kairat Almaty
1.5 Goals Scored 1.38
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Atalanta

(Home)
15 Oct
Atalanta
3 : 1
Pafos
12 Oct
Atalanta
3 : 1
Venezia
20 Sept
Juventus
2 : 0
Atalanta
12 Sept
Atalanta
1 : 2
Cagliari
05 Sept
AS Roma
2 : 1
Atalanta
Page 1 of 6

Kairat Almaty

(Away)
15 Oct
Riga FC
1 : 1
Kairat Almaty
10 Oct
Kairat Almaty
1 : 0
Zhetysu Taldykorgan
17 Sept
FC Astana
1 : 0
Kairat Almaty
13 Sept
Kairat Almaty
1 : 4
Tobol
09 Sept
Kairat Almaty
3 : 0
Zhenis
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Brighton 1 1 0 0 4:0 3
2 FC Copenhagen 1 1 0 0 3:0 3
3 Trabzonspor 1 1 0 0 4:2 3
4 Atalanta 1 1 0 0 3:1 3
5 Mjallby 1 1 0 0 2:0 3
6 St. Truiden 1 1 0 0 2:0 3
7 Freiburg 1 1 0 0 3:2 3
8 Lugano 1 1 0 0 3:2 3
9 Monaco 1 1 0 0 2:1 3
10 Hajduk Split 1 1 0 0 2:1 3
11 Panathinaikos 1 1 0 0 2:1 3
12 Brann 1 1 0 0 2:1 3
13 Gent 1 1 0 0 1:0 3
14 Twente 1 1 0 0 1:0 3
15 Getafe 1 0 1 0 1:1 1
16 Midtjylland 1 0 1 0 1:1 1
17 Nordsjaelland 1 0 1 0 1:1 1
18 Kairat Almaty 1 0 1 0 1:1 1
19 Hearts 1 0 1 0 1:1 1
20 KF Egnatia 1 0 1 0 1:1 1
21 Univ. Craiova 1 0 1 0 1:1 1
22 Riga FC 1 0 1 0 1:1 1
23 Jablonec 1 0 0 1 2:3 0
24 Crvena zvezda 1 0 0 1 2:3 0
25 Ajax 1 0 0 1 1:2 0
26 Borac Banja Luka 1 0 0 1 1:2 0
27 Lincoln Red Imps 1 0 0 1 1:2 0
28 CSKA Sofia 1 0 0 1 1:2 0
29 Aarhus 1 0 0 1 0:1 0
30 Thun 1 0 0 1 0:1 0
31 KuPS 1 0 0 1 2:4 0
32 Pafos 1 0 0 1 1:3 0
33 Inter Escaldes 1 0 0 1 0:2 0
34 Iberia 1999 1 0 0 1 0:2 0
35 Braga 1 0 0 1 0:3 0
36 FK Kauno Zalgiris 1 0 0 1 0:4 0
Promotion - Conference League (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - Conference League (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)