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Athens Kallithea vs AEL Larissa - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Greece Greece

Greek Cup
Athens Kallithea Logo

Athens Kallithea

1 - 3
FT
AEL Larissa Logo

AEL Larissa

Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Papageorgiou K.
(Penalty)
53' Event
Papageorgiou K.
86' Event
Manias M.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-3. The second leg ended 1-3.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Athens Kallithea
20%
Draws
44%
AEL Larissa
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: AEL Larissa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

44% / Low Confidence
  • Athens Kallithea carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 44% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Athens Kallithea have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor AEL Larissa, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • AEL Larissa have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Athens Kallithea Clean Sheet 16%
AEL Larissa Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Athens Kallithea AEL Larissa
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 12 8
Draws 9 12
Losses 7 9
Goals Scored 1.04 1.24
Goals Conceded 0.93 1.28
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 17, 2026 Greek Cup
Athens Kallithea vs AEL Larissa
1:3
Apr 2, 2016 Football League
AEL Larissa vs Athens Kallithea
1:0
Nov 22, 2015 Football League
Athens Kallithea vs AEL Larissa
0:1
May 26, 2013 Football League
AEL Larissa vs Athens Kallithea
2:1
Feb 10, 2013 Football League
Athens Kallithea vs AEL Larissa
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Athens Kallithea Compare

Top Goalscorer Manias M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

AEL Larissa Compare

Top Goalscorer Papageorgiou K.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Albanis C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Athens Kallithea 36 / 100
AEL Larissa 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Athens Kallithea AEL Larissa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AEL Larissa Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Athens Kallithea scored in 75% of their last 28 outings.

AEL Larissa let in goals in 72% of their last 29 matches.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Athens Kallithea stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Athens Kallithea VS AEL Larissa
1 Goals Scored 1.63
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Athens Kallithea

(Home)
28 Sept
Athens Kallithea
2 : 0
Asteras Tripolis B
20 Sept
Athens Kallithea
2 : 1
Panserraikos
12 Sept
Marko
2 : 1
Athens Kallithea
07 Sept
Athens Kallithea
2 : 1
Niki Volos
17 Aug
Athens Kallithea
1 : 3
AEL Larissa
Page 1 of 6

AEL Larissa

(Away)
03 Oct
Niki Volos
2 : 2
AEL Larissa
27 Sept
AEL Larissa
1 : 0
PAOK B
21 Sept
Pyrgos
0 : 4
AEL Larissa
17 Sept
Kalamata
1 : 1
AEL Larissa
12 Sept
AEL Larissa
1 : 0
Zakynthos
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Athens Kallithea -
TBD -
AO Trikala 0
AEL Larissa 4
Iraklis FC -
TBD -
TBD -
Volos -
Atromitos -
TBD -
TBD -
Pyrgos -
Zakynthos -
TBD -
TBD -
Kifisia -
Karditsa -
TBD -
TBD -
Aris -
Ellas Syrou -
TBD -
TBD -
Marko -
Niki Volos -
TBD -
TBD -
Panionios -
Levadiakos -
TBD -
TBD -
Asteras Tripolis -
Chrisoupolis -
TBD -
TBD -
Apollon Kalamaria -
Kalamata -
TBD -
TBD -
Panetolikos -
Panserraikos -
TBD -
TBD -
Panthrakikos -
Final
Athens Kallithea 1
AEL Larissa 3
Iraklis FC 1
Volos 3
Atromitos 3
Pyrgos 1
Zakynthos 1
Kifisia 6
Karditsa 0
Aris 2
Ellas Syrou 1
Marko 2
Niki Volos 1
Panionios 0
Levadiakos 0
Asteras Tripolis 3
Chrisoupolis 1
Apollon Kalamaria 0
Kalamata 4
Panetolikos 2
Panserraikos 2
Panthrakikos 1