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Athletic Club vs Fortaleza

Brazil Brazil

Serie B Estádio Joaquim Portugal
Our Tip

Match Events

7'
Kaua Rocha
46'
Sub
Kaua Rocha In: Luiz Fernando
Out: Kaua Rocha
46'
Sub
Santos de Souza R. H. In: Mailton
Out: Santos de Souza R. H.

AI Match Summary

Athletic Club in this Serie B matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Athletic Club.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Athletic Club
33%
Draws
40%
Fortaleza
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Fortaleza

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Fortaleza lately — more wins on the board than Athletic Club.
  • 40% — that's where the model lands on Fortaleza taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
Athletic Club Clean Sheet 26%
Fortaleza Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Athletic Club Fortaleza
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 9 15
Draws 13 6
Losses 7 8
Goals Scored 0.5 1
Goals Conceded 0.63 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 0.50 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.63 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 30, 2026 Serie B
Athletic Club vs Fortaleza
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Athletic Club Compare

Top Goalscorer Ian Luccas
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.38
Avg xA / game 0.25

Fortaleza Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Athletic Club 30 / 100
Fortaleza 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Athletic Club Fortaleza

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FOR Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Athletic Club's goal record stands at 72% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Athletic Club went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Defensive concern: Fortaleza conceded in 59% of 29 recent games.

Games between these two average 1.00 goals.

Scoring Trends

Athletic Club VS Fortaleza
0.5 Goals Scored 1
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.25
38% Over 1.5 75%
0% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 0%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Criciuma18106222:1236
2EC Juventude1895419:832
3Operario-PR1895424:2032
4Vila Nova FC1894525:2131
5Fortaleza1894521:1731
6Novorizontino1886428:1730
7Goias1884620:2428
8Sao Bernardo1876524:1727
9Sport Recife1869323:1727
10Atletico GO1867519:1925
11Cuiaba1859414:1324
12Athletic Club1859416:1624
13CRB1865728:3223
14Nautico1863922:2321
15Botafogo SP1856720:1821
16Londrina1855825:2520
17Ceara1847716:2119
18Avai1845919:2517
19Ponte Preta18221412:358
20America MG18151212:298