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Atl. Madrid W vs Costa Adeje Tenerife W

Spain Spain

Copa de la Reina Women Centro Deportivo Wanda Alcalá de Henares
Our Tip

Match Events

13'
Zaremba A.
36'
Fernandez A.
56'
Sub
Sarriegi A. In: Gio Garbelini
Out: Sarriegi A.

AI Match Summary

Atl. Madrid W in this Copa de la Reina Women matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Atl. Madrid W.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Atl. Madrid W
40%
Draws
29%
Costa Adeje Tenerife W
Draw rate projection: 40% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Atl. Madrid W lately — more wins on the board than Costa Adeje Tenerife W.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this Copa de la Reina Women fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
Atl. Madrid W Clean Sheet 20%
Costa Adeje Tenerife W Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Atl. Madrid W Costa Adeje Tenerife W
Matches Played 36 31
Wins 15 14
Draws 10 11
Losses 11 6
Goals Scored 2.63 1.38
Goals Conceded 0.5 0.38
Expected Goals (xG) 2.63 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.50 0.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 26, 2026 Liga F Women
Atl. Madrid W vs Costa Adeje Tenerife W
2:2
Mar 17, 2026 Copa de la Reina Women
Costa Adeje Tenerife W vs Atl. Madrid W
0:1
Mar 11, 2026 Copa de la Reina Women
Atl. Madrid W vs Costa Adeje Tenerife W
1:0
Nov 23, 2025 Liga F Women
Costa Adeje Tenerife W vs Atl. Madrid W
2:1
Apr 18, 2025 Liga F Women
Atl. Madrid W vs Costa Adeje Tenerife W
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Atl. Madrid W Compare

Top Goalscorer Gio Garbelini
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.02
Avg xA / game 1.31

Costa Adeje Tenerife W Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Atl. Madrid W 32 / 100
Costa Adeje Tenerife W 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Atl. Madrid W Costa Adeje Tenerife W

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Atl. Madrid W's goal record stands at 78% scoring rate across 36 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.20 goals when they meet.

Costa Adeje Tenerife W's defensive record shows goals conceded in 55% of 31 matches.

Atl. Madrid W went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Atl. Madrid W VS Costa Adeje Tenerife W
2.63 Goals Scored 1.38
0.5 Goals Conceded 0.38
75% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/16-finals
Guiniguada Apolinario W1
Dep. A Coruna W3
TBD-
Real Sociedad W-
CA Osasuna W0
Badalona W3
TBD-
Granada CF W-
Valencia W1
Espanyol W2
TBD-
Real Madrid W-
Alaves W4
Levante W0
TBD-
Barcelona W-
Sport Extremadura CD W1
Alhama W2
TBD-
Atl. Madrid W-
CE Europa W2
Logrono Dux W1
TBD-
Athletic Bilbao W-
Huelva W1
Madrid CFF W7
TBD-
Eibar W-
Real Oviedo W2
Sevilla W3
TBD-
Costa Adeje Tenerife W-
1/8-finals
Dep. A Coruna W1
Real Sociedad W4
Badalona W1
Granada CF W0
Espanyol W0
Real Madrid W4
Alaves W1
Barcelona W6
Alhama W1
Atl. Madrid W2
CE Europa W0
Athletic Bilbao W3
Madrid CFF W3
Eibar W2
Sevilla W1
Costa Adeje Tenerife W2
Quarter-finals
Real Sociedad W0
Badalona W1
Real Madrid W0
Barcelona W4
Atl. Madrid W4
Athletic Bilbao W1
Madrid CFF W0
Costa Adeje Tenerife W1
Semi-finals
Badalona W1
Barcelona W4
Atl. Madrid W2
Costa Adeje Tenerife W0
Final
Barcelona W3
Atl. Madrid W1