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Atl. Madrid W vs Manchester United W

Europe Europe

Champions League Women 2025/2026 Centro Deportivo Wanda Alcalá de Henares
Our Tip

Match Events

19'
Riviere J.
24' Event
Rolfo F.
Assist: Toone E.
37'
Janssen D.

AI Match Summary

Manchester United W in this Champions League Women 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Manchester United W.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Atl. Madrid W
6%
Draws
4%
Manchester United W
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Atl. Madrid W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Manchester United W lately — more wins on the board than Atl. Madrid W.
  • 90% — that's where the model lands on Atl. Madrid W taking it.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this Champions League Women 2025/2026 fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 3 times recently and Manchester United W have taken 3 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Atl. Madrid W Clean Sheet 20%
Manchester United W Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Atl. Madrid W Manchester United W
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 12 15
Draws 7 5
Losses 13 10
Goals Scored 2.5 0.75
Goals Conceded 0.63 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 2.50 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.63 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 19, 2026 Champions League Women
Manchester United W vs Atl. Madrid W
2:0
Feb 12, 2026 Champions League Women
Atl. Madrid W vs Manchester United W
0:3
Oct 16, 2025 Champions League Women
Atl. Madrid W vs Manchester United W
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Atl. Madrid W Compare

Avg xG / game 1.92
Avg xA / game 1.25

Manchester United W Compare

Top Goalscorer Rolfo F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Atl. Madrid W 85 / 100
Manchester United W 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Atl. Madrid W Manchester United W

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ATM Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Atl. Madrid W's goal record stands at 72% scoring rate across 32 recent games.

Manchester United W let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Difficult form: Manchester United W registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Atl. Madrid W VS Manchester United W
2.5 Goals Scored 0.75
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 13%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Barcelona W651020:316
2Lyon W651018:516
3Chelsea W642020:314
4Bayern Munich W641114:1313
5Arsenal W640211:612
6Manchester United W64027:912
7Real Madrid W632113:711
8Juventus W631213:810
9Wolfsburg W630313:109
10Paris FC W62226:98
11Atl. Madrid W621313:97
12Leuven W61325:106
13Valerenga W61144:94
14AS Roma W61149:194
15Twente W60334:103
16SL Benfica W60244:112
17PSG W60244:122
18St. Polten W60153:281