Sport Picks
Atl. Nacional vs Alianza
Colombia
Primera A Estadio Atanasio Girardot 
AI Match Summary
Atl. Nacional play Alianza in the Primera A. It looks like a close match. Recently, Atl. Nacional averaged 1.73 goals scored and 0.97 conceded. Alianza averaged 0.83 goals scored and 1.13 conceded. In past meetings, Atl. Nacional won 3, Alianza won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on Feb 21, 2026 ended 3:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.63 for Atl. Nacional and 1.06 for Alianza. This points to a Atl. Nacional double chance or over markets.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
- Atl. Nacional picked up more points recently compared to Alianza.
- Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.63 vs 1.06 xG).
- Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Atl. Nacional | Alianza |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 19 | 8 |
| Draws | 2 | 10 |
| Losses | 9 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 1.73 | 0.83 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.97 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.13 | 1.25 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 0.88 | 1.13 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Atl. Nacional Compare
Alianza Compare
Sokapicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Value Bet Detector (+EV)
Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds
Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations
Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries
Sokapicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Atl. Nacional scored in 70% of their last 30 games.
Alianza let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.
Games between these two average 3.20 goals.
Atl. Nacional went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
Alianza lost 1 of their last 5 games.
Match Risk Analysis
Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability
Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.
Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.
Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.
Interactive Team Comparison Slider
Side-by-side comparison of team metrics
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atl. Nacional | 19 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 35:15 | 40 |
| 2 | Junior | 19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 31:24 | 35 |
| 3 | Dep. Pasto | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 29:25 | 34 |
| 4 | America De Cali | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 25:15 | 33 |
| 5 | Once Caldas | 19 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 31:22 | 33 |
| 6 | Deportes Tolima | 19 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 27:17 | 31 |
| 7 | Santa Fe | 19 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 29:22 | 29 |
| 8 | Inter Bogotá | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 26:26 | 28 |
| 9 | Dep. Cali | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 20:16 | 27 |
| 10 | Millonarios | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 31:23 | 26 |
| 11 | Ind. Medellin | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 26:24 | 26 |
| 12 | Aguilas Doradas | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 20:25 | 26 |
| 13 | Bucaramanga | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 26:20 | 23 |
| 14 | Llaneros | 19 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 17:20 | 22 |
| 15 | Fortaleza C.E.I.F. | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 22:27 | 22 |
| 16 | Jaguares de Cordoba | 19 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 20:33 | 18 |
| 17 | Alianza | 19 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 13:27 | 17 |
| 18 | Chico | 19 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 15:32 | 17 |
| 19 | Cucuta | 19 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 22:35 | 16 |
| 20 | Dep. Pereira | 19 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 15:32 | 10 |