Sport Picks
Atl. Nacional vs Deportes Tolima - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Colombia
Primera A Estadio Atanasio Girardot, Medellín 
Match Events
46'
46'
Sub
Perlaza Perea Y. A. In: Uribe M.
Out: Perlaza Perea Y. A.
46'
46'
Sub
Sanchez L. In: Parra Osorio A.
Out: Sanchez L.
54'
54'
Rovira B.
AI Match Summary
The Primera A game between Atl. Nacional and Deportes Tolima finished 0-0.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
39%
35%
26%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Atl. Nacional
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
39%
/ Low Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Atl. Nacional come out ahead of Deportes Tolima on wins alone.
- Model gives Atl. Nacional a 39% chance of winning this.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Atl. Nacional Clean Sheet 68%
Deportes Tolima Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Atl. Nacional | Deportes Tolima |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 31 | 34 |
| Wins | 21 | 14 |
| Draws | 4 | 8 |
| Losses | 6 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 1.87 | 1.32 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.81 | 1.18 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.50 | 0.94 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Oct 8, 2026 Primera A
Atl. Nacional vs Deportes Tolima
0:0
May 23, 2026 Primera A
Atl. Nacional vs Deportes Tolima
3:1
May 16, 2026 Primera A
Deportes Tolima vs Atl. Nacional
0:1
Mar 2, 2026 Primera A
Deportes Tolima vs Atl. Nacional
1:0
Aug 2, 2025 Primera A
Deportes Tolima vs Atl. Nacional
0:0
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Atl. Nacional 59 / 100
Deportes Tolima 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Atl. Nacional Deportes Tolima
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Atl. Nacional Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 6:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Atl. Nacional's goal record stands at 77% scoring rate across 31 recent games.
Deportes Tolima has conceded goals in 71% of their last 34 outings.
Recent resilience: Atl. Nacional stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.
These sides typically produce 1.20 goals when they meet.
Scoring Trends
Atl. Nacional VS Deportes Tolima
2.13 Goals Scored 0.88
1 Goals Conceded 0.88
100% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Atl. Nacional
(Home) 08 Oct
Atl. Nacional
0 : 0 Deportes Tolima
01 Oct
Atl. Nacional
3 : 1 Junior
26 Sept
Atl. Nacional
1 : 1 Chapecoense-SC
25 Sept
Atl. Nacional
1 : 1 Millonarios
21 Sept
Llaneros
2 : 0 Atl. Nacional
Page 1 of 7
08 Oct
Atl. Nacional
0 : 0 Deportes Tolima
01 Oct
Atl. Nacional
3 : 1 Junior
26 Sept
Atl. Nacional
1 : 1 Chapecoense-SC
25 Sept
Atl. Nacional
1 : 1 Millonarios
13 Sept
Atl. Nacional
2 : 0 Aguilas Doradas
Page 1 of 4
Deportes Tolima
(Away) 08 Oct
Atl. Nacional
0 : 0 Deportes Tolima
03 Oct
Deportes Tolima
0 : 0 Chico
27 Sept
Fortaleza C.E.I.F.
2 : 2 Deportes Tolima
20 Sept
Deportes Tolima
1 : 1 America De Cali
16 Sept
Once Caldas
1 : 0 Deportes Tolima
Page 1 of 7
08 Oct
Atl. Nacional
0 : 0 Deportes Tolima
27 Sept
Fortaleza C.E.I.F.
2 : 2 Deportes Tolima
16 Sept
Once Caldas
1 : 0 Deportes Tolima
12 Sept
Santa Fe
1 : 0 Deportes Tolima
07 Sept
Llaneros
1 : 2 Deportes Tolima
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | America De Cali | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 24:7 | 27 |
| 2 | Dep. Cali | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 20:9 | 24 |
| 3 | Atl. Nacional | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 21:10 | 23 |
| 4 | Bucaramanga | 11 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 20:10 | 23 |
| 5 | Santa Fe | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 19:12 | 22 |
| 6 | Millonarios | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 19:12 | 22 |
| 7 | Ind. Medellin | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 19:16 | 20 |
| 8 | Deportes Tolima | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 15:13 | 20 |
| 9 | Once Caldas | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 16:16 | 16 |
| 10 | Aguilas Doradas | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 16:17 | 15 |
| 11 | Cucuta | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 15:19 | 15 |
| 12 | Llaneros | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 15:17 | 14 |
| 13 | Inter Bogotá | 13 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 14:18 | 13 |
| 14 | Chico | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 10:18 | 12 |
| 15 | Alianza | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 14:26 | 12 |
| 16 | Fortaleza C.E.I.F. | 13 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 14:19 | 11 |
| 17 | Junior | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 16:20 | 9 |
| 18 | Dep. Pasto | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9:18 | 9 |
| 19 | Dep. Pereira | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 7:17 | 8 |
| 20 | Jaguares de Cordoba | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 11:20 | 7 |
Promotion - Primera A (Clausura - Quadrangular)
