Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Atl. Nacional W vs Fortaleza W

Colombia Colombia

Liga Women Estadio Atanasio Girardot, Medellín
Our Tip

Match Events

2' Event
Gonzalez M.
26' Event
Alvarez L.
34'
Sub
Alonso N. In: Santana D.
Out: Alonso N.

AI Match Summary

The Liga Women game between Atl. Nacional W and Fortaleza W finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Atl. Nacional W.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Atl. Nacional W
6%
Draws
4%
Fortaleza W
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Atl. Nacional W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Atl. Nacional W carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Atl. Nacional W are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Liga Women form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Atl. Nacional W Clean Sheet 68%
Fortaleza W Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Atl. Nacional W Fortaleza W
Matches Played 32 29
Wins 21 5
Draws 6 8
Losses 5 16
Goals Scored 1.88 0.5
Goals Conceded 0.38 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 0.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.38 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 12, 2026 Liga Women
Atl. Nacional W vs Fortaleza W
3:0
Jun 21, 2025 Liga Women
Atl. Nacional W vs Fortaleza W
1:1
May 4, 2022 Liga Women
Fortaleza W vs Atl. Nacional W
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Atl. Nacional W Compare

Top Goalscorer Gonzalez M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Alvarez L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Fortaleza W Compare

Avg xG / game 0.45
Avg xA / game 0.28

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Atl. Nacional W 95 / 100
Fortaleza W 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Atl. Nacional W Fortaleza W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick NAC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Atl. Nacional W found the back of the net in 88% of recent matches (32 games).

Atl. Nacional W went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Defensive concern: Fortaleza W conceded in 79% of 29 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.33 goals.

Scoring Trends

Atl. Nacional W VS Fortaleza W
1.88 Goals Scored 0.5
0.38 Goals Conceded 1.38
50% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Atl. Nacional W

(Home)
29 May
Atl. Nacional W
2 : 0
Inter Bogotá W
24 May
Dep. Pasto W
1 : 3
Atl. Nacional W
16 May
Atl. Nacional W
1 : 0
Once Caldas W
11 May
Inter Palmira W
0 : 1
Atl. Nacional W
01 May
Atl. Nacional W
1 : 0
Ind. Medellin W
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Fortaleza W

(Away)
29 May
Fortaleza W
2 : 1
Bucaramanga W
24 May
Junior W
0 : 0
Fortaleza W
15 May
Fortaleza W
0 : 3
Millonarios W
10 May
Dep. Pasto W
1 : 2
Fortaleza W
03 May
Fortaleza W
0 : 2
Inter Bogotá W
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Atl. Nacional W13110225:533
2Dep. Cali W13102129:632
3America de Cali W1392222:629
4Millonarios W1384128:728
5Indep. Santa Fe W1374223:925
6Inter Bogotá W1371519:1422
7Inter Palmira W1363412:1521
8Ind. Medellin W1361620:1519
9Orsomarso W1336413:1315
10Fortaleza W133469:1813
11Llaneros W133469:2113
12Junior W1325611:2111
13Bucaramanga W132299:338
14Once Caldas W131485:197
15Real Santander W130763:197
16Dep. Pasto W1303108:243
Promotion - Liga Women (Promotion Group)