Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Atl. Rafaela vs Deportivo Maipu

Argentina Argentina

Primera Nacional Estadio Nuevo Monumental
Our Tip

Match Events

14' Event
Silva T.
Assist: Galardi N.
34'
Bonfigli M.
46'
Sub
Jourdan F. In: Obando A.
Out: Jourdan F.

AI Match Summary

The Primera Nacional game between Atl. Rafaela and Deportivo Maipu finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Deportivo Maipu.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Atl. Rafaela
39%
Draws
30%
Deportivo Maipu
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Atl. Rafaela come out ahead of Deportivo Maipu on wins alone.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
Atl. Rafaela Clean Sheet 23%
Deportivo Maipu Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Atl. Rafaela Deportivo Maipu
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 13 12
Draws 7 7
Losses 9 11
Goals Scored 0.38 1.38
Goals Conceded 0.63 0.88
Expected Goals (xG) 0.38 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.63 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 11, 2026 Primera Nacional
Atl. Rafaela vs Deportivo Maipu
1:3
Feb 21, 2026 Primera Nacional
Deportivo Maipu vs Atl. Rafaela
2:1
Sep 17, 2023 Primera Nacional
Atl. Rafaela vs Deportivo Maipu
2:0
May 7, 2023 Primera Nacional
Deportivo Maipu vs Atl. Rafaela
1:1
May 2, 2022 Primera Nacional
Deportivo Maipu vs Atl. Rafaela
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Atl. Rafaela Compare

Top Goalscorer Obando A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.29
Avg xA / game 0.19

Deportivo Maipu Compare

Top Goalscorer Silva T.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Viguet M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Atl. Rafaela 33 / 100
Deportivo Maipu 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Atl. Rafaela Deportivo Maipu

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick DEP Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Atl. Rafaela's goal record stands at 62% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Defensive concern: Deportivo Maipu conceded in 67% of 30 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Recent resilience: Atl. Rafaela stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Atl. Rafaela VS Deportivo Maipu
0.38 Goals Scored 1.38
0.63 Goals Conceded 0.88
25% Over 1.5 50%
0% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Ferro21134425:1443
2Deportivo Moron20105529:1935
3Colon Santa Fe2198427:1735
4Los Andes2088419:832
5CA Estudiantes2187618:1631
6Almirante Brown2187615:1331
7Ciudad Bolivar2079419:1630
8Deportivo Madryn2078527:2229
9Godoy Cruz2077620:1728
10San Miguel20510517:2125
11Racing Cordoba2166920:2524
12Defensores de Belgrano2058714:1823
13CA Mitre2149820:2721
14All Boys2049713:2021
15San Telmo2048816:2120
16Acassuso20541115:2319
17Central Norte2047912:2119
18Chaco For Ever20371017:2616
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Gimnasia Jujuy20115432:2238
2Atletico Atlanta20113625:1536
3Tristan Suarez2089317:1133
4Temperley20710319:1731
5Midland2086621:1530
6San Martin T.2179519:1530
7Deportivo Maipu2185827:2129
8Atl. Rafaela2076715:1627
9San Martin S.J.1975720:1926
10Nueva Chicago2068618:1826
11Gimnasia y Tiro2067719:2125
12Almagro2074916:2225
13Quilmes2066818:1624
14Colegiales2065918:2023
15Chacarita Juniors2065916:2123
16Patronato20410613:1722
17Agropecuario2148915:2520
18Club Atletico Guemes20541118:3419