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Atl. Rafaela vs San Martin T. - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Argentina Argentina

Primera Nacional Estadio Nuevo Monumental, Rafaela
Atl. Rafaela Logo

Atl. Rafaela

4 - 2
FT
San Martin T. Logo

San Martin T.

Our Tip

Match Events

25' Event
Cisnero A.
Assist: Graneros A.
27' Event
Albertengo L.
Assist: Bonifacio J.
31'
Carabajal G.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Primera Nacional game between Atl. Rafaela and San Martin T. finished 4-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Atl. Rafaela.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
Atl. Rafaela
15%
Draws
59%
San Martin T.
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: San Martin T.

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and San Martin T. come out ahead of Atl. Rafaela on wins alone.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
Atl. Rafaela Clean Sheet 16%
San Martin T. Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Atl. Rafaela San Martin T.
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 8 9
Draws 8 9
Losses 12 10
Goals Scored 0.82 1.07
Goals Conceded 1.11 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 19, 2026 Primera Nacional
Atl. Rafaela vs San Martin T.
4:2
May 2, 2026 Primera Nacional
San Martin T. vs Atl. Rafaela
2:1
Jul 3, 2022 Primera Nacional
Atl. Rafaela vs San Martin T.
1:1
Dec 14, 2020 Primera Nacional
San Martin T. vs Atl. Rafaela
0:3
Apr 11, 2020 Primera Nacional
Atl. Rafaela vs San Martin T.
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Atl. Rafaela Compare

Top Goalscorer Albertengo L.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Bonifacio J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

San Martin T. Compare

Top Goalscorer Cisnero A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Cabrera B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Atl. Rafaela 36 / 100
San Martin T. 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Atl. Rafaela San Martin T.

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick San Martin T. Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

San Martin T. has conceded goals in 64% of their last 28 outings.

H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.

Attacking prowess: Atl. Rafaela scored in 54% of their last 28 outings.

Recent resilience: Atl. Rafaela stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Atl. Rafaela VS San Martin T.
1.13 Goals Scored 1.63
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.63
63% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Atl. Rafaela

(Home)
04 Oct
Atl. Rafaela
2 : 3
Atletico Atlanta
27 Sept
Gimnasia y Tiro
1 : 0
Atl. Rafaela
19 Sept
Atl. Rafaela
4 : 2
San Martin T.
13 Sept
Gimnasia Jujuy
2 : 1
Atl. Rafaela
06 Sept
Agropecuario
2 : 0
Atl. Rafaela
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San Martin T.

(Away)
04 Oct
San Martin T.
1 : 0
Gimnasia y Tiro
28 Sept
Gimnasia Jujuy
2 : 2
San Martin T.
19 Sept
Atl. Rafaela
4 : 2
San Martin T.
13 Sept
San Martin T.
3 : 0
Agropecuario
05 Sept
Tristan Suarez
2 : 0
San Martin T.
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ferro 32 18 7 7 36:27 61
2 Deportivo Moron 32 17 7 8 51:32 58
3 Godoy Cruz 32 16 8 8 42:29 56
4 Deportivo Madryn 32 14 11 7 46:28 53
5 Colon Santa Fe 32 14 10 8 39:25 52
6 Almirante Brown 32 12 10 10 25:21 46
7 CA Estudiantes 32 12 9 11 29:27 45
8 Ciudad Bolivar 32 11 12 9 27:28 45
9 Los Andes 32 9 13 10 25:23 40
10 Chaco For Ever 32 9 10 13 30:33 37
11 Defensores de Belgrano 32 8 13 11 25:29 37
12 San Telmo 32 9 10 13 28:36 37
13 Racing Cordoba 32 9 10 13 29:39 37
14 CA Mitre 32 7 14 11 29:39 35
15 Central Norte 32 6 15 11 20:29 33
16 All Boys 32 6 15 11 18:28 33
17 San Miguel 32 6 13 13 25:38 31
18 Acassuso 32 7 8 17 22:35 29
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Super final)
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Promotion - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Tristan Suarez 32 15 13 4 32:15 58
2 Temperley 32 15 11 6 38:26 56
3 Atletico Atlanta 32 17 4 11 38:30 55
4 Gimnasia Jujuy 32 15 9 8 48:40 54
5 Midland 32 13 9 10 34:26 48
6 Gimnasia y Tiro 32 13 9 10 32:28 48
7 Deportivo Maipu 32 13 8 11 39:31 47
8 Colegiales 32 13 7 12 32:31 46
9 San Martin S.J. 32 12 9 11 34:32 45
10 San Martin T. 32 10 13 9 35:32 43
11 Atl. Rafaela 32 11 9 12 27:30 42
12 Quilmes 32 10 9 13 30:27 39
13 Almagro 32 10 8 14 28:38 38
14 Agropecuario 32 9 10 13 26:35 37
15 Nueva Chicago 32 9 9 14 23:30 36
16 Patronato 32 6 16 10 27:32 34
17 Chacarita Juniors 32 9 6 17 24:33 33
18 Club Atletico Guemes 32 5 8 19 23:54 23
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Super final)
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Promotion - Play Offs)