Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Atlanta United vs New York Red Bulls - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

USA USA

MLS Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
Atlanta United Logo

Atlanta United

2 - 1
FT
New York Red Bulls Logo

New York Red Bulls

Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Forsberg E.
Assist: Mehmeti A.
48'
Jacob T.
68'
Sub
Edwards M. In: Gregersen S.
Out: Edwards M.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Atlanta United in this MLS matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Atlanta United.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Atlanta United
35%
Draws
35%
New York Red Bulls
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Atlanta United have won more games recently than New York Red Bulls.
  • 30% — that's where the model lands on Atlanta United taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.6%
Atlanta United Clean Sheet 20%
New York Red Bulls Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Atlanta United New York Red Bulls
Matches Played 27 27
Wins 9 8
Draws 6 6
Losses 12 13
Goals Scored 1.33 1.3
Goals Conceded 1.59 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 15, 2026 MLS
Atlanta United vs New York Red Bulls
2:1
Feb 11, 2026 Club Friendly
Atlanta United vs New York Red Bulls
3:2
May 31, 2025 MLS
New York Red Bulls vs Atlanta United
2:0
Mar 9, 2025 MLS
Atlanta United vs New York Red Bulls
0:0
Oct 5, 2024 MLS
Atlanta United vs New York Red Bulls
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Atlanta United Compare

Top Goalscorer Muyumba T.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Picault F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

New York Red Bulls Compare

Top Goalscorer Forsberg E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Atlanta United 40 / 100
New York Red Bulls 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Atlanta United New York Red Bulls

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Atlanta United Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 8:3
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

New York Red Bulls's defensive record shows goals conceded in 89% of 27 matches.

Atlanta United found the back of the net in 74% of recent matches (27 games).

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

Atlanta United has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Atlanta United VS New York Red Bulls
1.13 Goals Scored 0.5
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Atlanta United

(Home)
26 Sept
Atlanta United
2 : 2
New York City
20 Sept
Portland Timbers
0 : 1
Atlanta United
12 Sept
DC United
0 : 0
Atlanta United
09 Sept
Atlanta United
2 : 3
Orlando City
05 Sept
Inter Miami
2 : 2
Atlanta United
Page 1 of 6

New York Red Bulls

(Away)
30 Sept
New York Red Bulls
0 : 3
St. Louis City
18 Sept
New York City
0 : 1
New York Red Bulls
12 Sept
Columbus Crew
0 : 1
New York Red Bulls
10 Sept
Los Angeles FC
2 : 0
New York Red Bulls
06 Sept
Seattle Sounders
0 : 0
New York Red Bulls
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vancouver Whitecaps 27 15 5 7 60:29 50
2 St. Louis City 27 13 8 6 48:36 47
3 FC Dallas 27 13 8 6 50:42 47
4 San Jose Earthquakes 27 13 6 8 49:39 45
5 Houston Dynamo 27 13 5 9 34:32 44
6 Los Angeles FC 28 11 8 9 43:30 41
7 Seattle Sounders 27 10 8 9 35:35 38
8 Colorado Rapids 27 11 3 13 38:38 36
9 Los Angeles Galaxy 28 9 9 10 37:44 36
10 Portland Timbers 27 9 5 13 48:51 32
11 Real Salt Lake 27 9 5 13 40:44 32
12 San Diego FC 27 8 8 11 47:47 32
13 Austin FC 27 7 10 10 35:47 31
14 Minnesota United 27 7 8 12 40:49 29
15 Sporting Kansas City 27 6 3 18 32:65 21
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Nashville SC 27 18 6 3 55:21 60
2 Chicago Fire 28 14 6 8 51:40 48
3 New England Revolution 27 14 4 9 45:36 46
4 Inter Miami 27 12 10 5 64:50 46
5 Charlotte FC 27 12 7 8 47:38 43
6 Philadelphia Union 27 11 6 10 54:44 39
7 Orlando City 27 10 4 13 48:64 34
8 New York Red Bulls 27 9 6 12 34:51 33
9 New York City 28 8 9 11 42:38 33
10 FC Cincinnati 26 8 9 9 55:64 33
11 Toronto FC 28 7 11 10 41:52 32
12 DC United 26 6 12 8 34:42 30
13 Columbus Crew 27 8 5 14 39:43 29
14 Atlanta United 27 7 6 14 32:45 27
15 CF Montreal 28 6 6 16 35:56 24
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)