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Atlante vs Toluca

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Club Friendly
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Atlante play Toluca in the Club Friendly. It looks like a close match. Recently, Atlante averaged 1.25 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. Toluca averaged 2.13 goals scored and 1.38 conceded. In past meetings, Atlante won 1, Toluca won 2, and they drew 2. Their last match on Jul 10, 2026 ended 3:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.31 for Atlante and 1.81 for Toluca. This points to a Toluca double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

22%
Atlante
28%
Draws
50%
Toluca
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Toluca

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Toluca demonstrates higher offensive output (2.13 avg goals) than Atlante (1.25 avg goals).
  • Model forecasts a 50% win probability edge for Toluca.
  • League standings and seasonal metrics in Club Friendly provide steady trend data.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78%
Atlante Clean Sheet 11%
Toluca Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Atlante Toluca
Matches Played 35 33
Wins 16 16
Draws 11 8
Losses 8 9
Goals Scored 1.25 2.13
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 10, 2026 Club Friendly
Atlante vs Toluca
3:3
Oct 25, 2017 Copa Mexico
Toluca vs Atlante
1:2
Feb 18, 2015 Copa Mexico
Atlante vs Toluca
1:1
Feb 4, 2015 Copa Mexico
Toluca vs Atlante
3:1
Aug 27, 2014 Copa Mexico
Atlante vs Toluca
0:3

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Atlante 22 / 100
Toluca 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Atlante Toluca

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick TOL Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Atlante scored in 83% of their last 35 games.

Toluca let in goals in 70% of their last 33 matches.

Games between these two average 3.60 goals.

Atlante went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Toluca lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Atlante VS Toluca
1.25 Goals Scored 2.13
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 38%