Sport Picks
Atletico Ascoli vs Fossombrone
Italy
Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 
Match Events
64'
64'
Sbrissa G.
68'
68'
Giometti C.
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
40%
20%
40%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
20%
/ Low Confidence
- Fossombrone haven't matched Atletico Ascoli's recent run of results.
- Win probability leans Atletico Ascoli's way, sitting at 36%.
- Regular Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Atletico Ascoli Clean Sheet 20%
Fossombrone Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Atletico Ascoli | Fossombrone |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 28 |
| Wins | 11 | 10 |
| Draws | 12 | 8 |
| Losses | 7 | 10 |
| Goals Scored | 1.3 | 0.82 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.07 | 1.14 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.50 | 1.19 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Oct 4, 2026 Serie D - Group F
Atletico Ascoli vs Fossombrone
0:1
Apr 19, 2026 Serie D - Group F
Atletico Ascoli vs Fossombrone
1:1
Dec 7, 2025 Serie D - Group F
Fossombrone vs Atletico Ascoli
0:0
Feb 16, 2025 Serie D - Group F
Atletico Ascoli vs Fossombrone
1:1
Oct 20, 2024 Serie D - Group F
Fossombrone vs Atletico Ascoli
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Atletico Ascoli Compare
Top Goalscorer Sbrissa G.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75
Fossombrone Compare
Top Goalscorer Giometti C.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Atletico Ascoli 36 / 100
Fossombrone 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Atletico Ascoli Fossombrone
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Atletico Ascoli scored in 77% of their last 30 outings.
Fossombrone's defensive record shows goals conceded in 61% of 28 matches.
Atletico Ascoli went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.
These sides typically produce 1.20 goals when they meet.
Scoring Trends
Atletico Ascoli VS Fossombrone
1.13 Goals Scored 1
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.88
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Atletico Ascoli
(Home) 04 Oct
Atletico Ascoli
0 : 1 Fossombrone
27 Sept
Giulianova
4 : 2 Atletico Ascoli
20 Sept
Atletico Ascoli
1 : 0 Sporting Trestina
16 Sept
Aquila Calcio
0 : 0 Atletico Ascoli
13 Sept
Atletico Ascoli
2 : 1 Maceratese
Page 1 of 6
04 Oct
Atletico Ascoli
0 : 1 Fossombrone
20 Sept
Atletico Ascoli
1 : 0 Sporting Trestina
13 Sept
Atletico Ascoli
2 : 1 Maceratese
03 May
Atletico Ascoli
1 : 1 Teramo
19 Apr
Atletico Ascoli
1 : 1 Fossombrone
Page 1 of 3
Fossombrone
(Away) 04 Oct
Atletico Ascoli
0 : 1 Fossombrone
27 Sept
Vigor Senigallia
0 : 0 Fossombrone
20 Sept
Fossombrone
2 : 4 Lanciano FC
16 Sept
Sporting Trestina
0 : 1 Fossombrone
12 Sept
Fossombrone
0 : 4 Aquila Calcio
Page 1 of 6
04 Oct
Atletico Ascoli
0 : 1 Fossombrone
27 Sept
Vigor Senigallia
0 : 0 Fossombrone
16 Sept
Sporting Trestina
0 : 1 Fossombrone
06 Sept
Giulianova
1 : 2 Fossombrone
01 Aug
Cesena
3 : 0 Fossombrone
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ostiamare | 34 | 24 | 7 | 3 | 65:25 | 79 |
| 2 | Ancona | 34 | 23 | 7 | 4 | 59:22 | 76 |
| 3 | Teramo | 34 | 21 | 11 | 2 | 65:29 | 74 |
| 4 | Atletico Ascoli | 34 | 14 | 13 | 7 | 55:35 | 55 |
| 5 | Notaresco Calcio | 34 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 43:31 | 51 |
| 6 | Aquila Calcio | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 53:44 | 51 |
| 7 | Giulianova | 34 | 11 | 16 | 7 | 40:31 | 49 |
| 8 | Vigor Senigallia | 34 | 12 | 13 | 9 | 45:40 | 49 |
| 9 | Fossombrone | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 28:34 | 44 |
| 10 | Unipomezia | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 43:42 | 42 |
| 11 | Termoli | 34 | 8 | 15 | 11 | 27:30 | 39 |
| 12 | Maceratese | 34 | 11 | 5 | 18 | 43:49 | 38 |
| 13 | AS Sora | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 40:50 | 38 |
| 14 | Recanatese | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 39:57 | 32 |
| 15 | San Marino Calcio | 34 | 8 | 7 | 19 | 33:61 | 31 |
| 16 | Calcio Chieti | 34 | 8 | 11 | 15 | 31:55 | 24 |
| 17 | Castelfidardo | 34 | 6 | 5 | 23 | 30:65 | 23 |
| 18 | Sammaurese | 34 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 30:69 | 20 |
Promotion - Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 (Play Out)
