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Atletico Ascoli vs Fossombrone

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group F
Our Tip

Match Events

64' Event
Sbrissa G.
68' Event
Giometti C.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Serie D - Group F matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Atletico Ascoli
39%
Draws
31%
Fossombrone
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Fossombrone haven't matched Atletico Ascoli's recent run of results.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group F form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Atletico Ascoli Clean Sheet 68%
Fossombrone Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Atletico Ascoli Fossombrone
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 13 10
Draws 11 7
Losses 6 13
Goals Scored 1.38 0.75
Goals Conceded 0.88 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 19, 2026 Serie D - Group F
Atletico Ascoli vs Fossombrone
1:1
Dec 7, 2025 Serie D - Group F
Fossombrone vs Atletico Ascoli
0:0
Feb 16, 2025 Serie D - Group F
Atletico Ascoli vs Fossombrone
1:1
Oct 20, 2024 Serie D - Group F
Fossombrone vs Atletico Ascoli
1:0
Apr 14, 2024 Serie D - Group F
Fossombrone vs Atletico Ascoli
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Atletico Ascoli Compare

Top Goalscorer Sbrissa G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Fossombrone Compare

Top Goalscorer Giometti C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Atletico Ascoli 41 / 100
Fossombrone 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Atletico Ascoli Fossombrone

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ATL Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Atletico Ascoli scored in 77% of their last 30 outings.

Fossombrone's defensive record shows goals conceded in 63% of 30 matches.

Atletico Ascoli went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Fossombrone's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Atletico Ascoli VS Fossombrone
1.38 Goals Scored 0.75
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 0%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Ostiamare34247365:2579
2Ancona34237459:2276
3Teramo342111265:2974
4Atletico Ascoli341413755:3555
5Notaresco Calcio341312943:3151
6Aquila Calcio341491153:4451
7Giulianova341116740:3149
8Vigor Senigallia341213945:4049
9Fossombrone3411111228:3444
10Unipomezia3410121243:4242
11Termoli348151127:3039
12Maceratese341151843:4938
13AS Sora349111440:5038
14Recanatese34881839:5732
15San Marino Calcio34871933:6131
16Calcio Chieti348111531:5524
17Castelfidardo34652330:6523
18Sammaurese34572230:6920