Sport Picks

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Atletico CP vs Covilha

Portugal Portugal

Liga 3 2025/2026 Estádio da Tapadinha, Lisbon
Our Tip

Match Events

42'
Sub
Barbosa A. In: Costa Branco Novais Oliveira T.
Out: Barbosa A.
45' Event
Balsa C.
Assist: Ferreira R.
61' Event
Liberal A.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

The Liga 3 2025/2026 game between Atletico CP and Covilha finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Covilha.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Atletico CP
30%
Draws
23%
Covilha
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Atletico CP

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Covilha haven't matched Atletico CP's recent run of results.
  • 47% — that's where the model lands on Atletico CP taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.8%
Atletico CP Clean Sheet 68%
Covilha Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Atletico CP Covilha
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 13 8
Draws 5 8
Losses 11 12
Goals Scored 1.21 0.79
Goals Conceded 0.9 1.29
Expected Goals (xG) 0.81 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 22, 2026 Liga 3
Covilha vs Atletico CP
0:3
Apr 12, 2026 Liga 3
Covilha vs Atletico CP
2:1
Feb 28, 2026 Liga 3
Atletico CP vs Covilha
1:2
Jan 17, 2026 Liga 3
Covilha vs Atletico CP
0:0
Oct 26, 2025 Liga 3
Atletico CP vs Covilha
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Atletico CP Compare

Avg xG / game 0.62
Avg xA / game 0.41

Covilha Compare

Top Goalscorer Balsa C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Atletico CP 95 / 100
Covilha 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Atletico CP Covilha

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Atletico CP Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Atletico CP found the back of the net in 76% of recent matches (29 games).

Covilha let in goals in 75% of their last 28 matches.

Historical meetings average 1.80 goals per match.

Atletico CP has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Atletico CP VS Covilha
0.75 Goals Scored 0.75
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.88
50% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Atletico CP

(Home)
29 Aug
Montijo
0 : 4
Atletico CP
22 Aug
Covilha
0 : 3
Atletico CP
15 Aug
Atletico CP
1 : 1
Mafra
08 Aug
Lusitano GC
0 : 1
Atletico CP
01 Aug
Atletico CP
0 : 1
Benfica B
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Covilha

(Away)
30 Aug
Covilha
0 : 1
Mortagua FC
22 Aug
Covilha
0 : 3
Atletico CP
16 Aug
Vitoria Sernache
0 : 0
Covilha
08 Aug
Covilha
2 : 0
Santarem
01 May
Covilha
1 : 1
Amora
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