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Atletico de Porcuna vs Motril

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Tercera RFEF - Group 9
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Match Events

70' Event
Cornejo R.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 9 game between Atletico de Porcuna and Motril finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Atletico de Porcuna.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Atletico de Porcuna
30%
Draws
34%
Motril
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Atletico de Porcuna

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Atletico de Porcuna carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Atletico de Porcuna are the model's pick here, at 36%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Atletico de Porcuna Clean Sheet 17%
Motril Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Atletico de Porcuna Motril
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 13 12
Draws 4 12
Losses 13 6
Goals Scored 1.38 1.13
Goals Conceded 1.63 0.88
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Motril vs Atletico de Porcuna
2:1
Jan 11, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Atletico de Porcuna vs Motril
1:0
May 4, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Atletico de Porcuna vs Motril
0:1
Jan 4, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Motril vs Atletico de Porcuna
1:4
Feb 19, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Motril vs Atletico de Porcuna
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Atletico de Porcuna Compare

Top Goalscorer Cornejo R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Motril Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Atletico de Porcuna 36 / 100
Motril 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Atletico de Porcuna Motril

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Atletico de Porcuna scored in 70% of their last 30 outings.

Motril's defensive record shows goals conceded in 67% of 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.

Solid form: Atletico de Porcuna remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Atletico de Porcuna VS Motril
1.38 Goals Scored 1.13
1.63 Goals Conceded 0.88
75% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 13%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Mijas Las Lagunas34199646:2466
2Motril341811555:2965
3Torre del Mar341413737:2655
4Arenas Armilla341591038:2954
5Churriana de la Vega3414101032:4052
6Marbelli341491136:2851
7Ciudad de Torredonjimeno3413111039:3850
8UD San Pedro3413101139:3749
9Atletico de Porcuna341441641:3946
10Huetor Vega341291343:4245
11Granada CF B3410141049:4744
12CD Alhaurino3411101341:4143
13Melilla B349121330:3239
14Mancha349101530:3837
15Huetor Tajar349101540:4437
16Martos349101532:4837
17CD Torreperogil34961924:4533
18El Palo34691928:5327