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Atletico Gloriense vs Desportiva Aracaju - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Copa Governo (Sergipe)
Our Tip

Match Events

81'
Bahia D.
81'
Bahia D.
90'
Rodrigo

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 0-0. This leg finished 0-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

19%
Atletico Gloriense
30%
Draws
51%
Desportiva Aracaju
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Desportiva Aracaju

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Desportiva Aracaju have won more games recently than Atletico Gloriense.
  • 51% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Desportiva Aracaju arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65.8%
Atletico Gloriense Clean Sheet 20%
Desportiva Aracaju Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Atletico Gloriense Desportiva Aracaju
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 12 17
Draws 6 5
Losses 12 8
Goals Scored 1.5 1.83
Goals Conceded 1.03 0.87
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 29, 2026 Copa Governo (Sergipe)
Atletico Gloriense vs Desportiva Aracaju
0:0
Jan 18, 2026 Sergipano
Atletico Gloriense vs Desportiva Aracaju
1:1
Oct 25, 2025 Sergipano 2
Desportiva Aracaju vs Atletico Gloriense
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Atletico Gloriense 36 / 100
Desportiva Aracaju 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Atletico Gloriense Desportiva Aracaju

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Desportiva Aracaju Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Atletico Gloriense found the back of the net in 67% of recent matches (30 games).

Games between these two average 1.67 goals.

Solid form: Atletico Gloriense remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Desportiva Aracaju's defensive record shows goals conceded in 47% of 30 matches.

Scoring Trends

Atletico Gloriense VS Desportiva Aracaju
1.75 Goals Scored 0.88
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.63
63% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Atletico Gloriense

(Home)
18 Aug
Falcon
1 : 0
Atletico Gloriense
13 Aug
Atletico Gloriense
0 : 0
Lagarto
08 Aug
Atletico Gloriense
0 : 1
Falcon
05 Aug
America de Propria
1 : 5
Atletico Gloriense
01 Aug
Guarany SE
1 : 1
Atletico Gloriense
Page 1 of 6

Desportiva Aracaju

(Away)
30 Aug
Falcon
0 : 2
Desportiva Aracaju
23 Aug
Desportiva Aracaju
0 : 0
Falcon
19 Aug
Desportiva Aracaju
2 : 0
Lagarto
13 Aug
Guarany SE
0 : 1
Desportiva Aracaju
10 Aug
Desportiva Aracaju
2 : 0
Lagarto
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Falcon 5 5 0 0 9:1 15
2 Desportiva Aracaju 5 3 1 1 6:4 10
3 Lagarto 5 2 1 2 4:4 7
4 Atletico Gloriense 5 1 3 1 6:3 6
5 Guarany SE 5 1 1 3 4:9 4
6 America de Propria 5 0 0 5 5:13 0
Promotion - Copa Governo (Sergipe) (Play Offs)