Sport Picks
Atletico La Paz vs Tapatio
Mexico
Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 Estadio Guaycura, La Paz 
Match Events
14'
14'
Villaseca D.
18'
18'
Illescas F.
49'
49'
Aguayo S.
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-2.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
42%
20%
38%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Atletico La Paz
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
67%
/ Medium Confidence
- Form's been kind to Tapatio lately — more wins on the board than Atletico La Paz.
- Atletico La Paz are the model's pick here, at 42%.
- Regular Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Atletico La Paz Clean Sheet 16%
Tapatio Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Atletico La Paz | Tapatio |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 30 |
| Wins | 9 | 10 |
| Draws | 12 | 6 |
| Losses | 8 | 14 |
| Goals Scored | 1.38 | 1.38 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.5 | 1.75 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.38 | 1.38 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.50 | 1.75 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jan 10, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Atletico La Paz vs Tapatio
2:2
Aug 3, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Tapatio vs Atletico La Paz
2:0
Mar 1, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Atletico La Paz vs Tapatio
4:1
Sep 15, 2024 Liga de Expansion MX
Tapatio vs Atletico La Paz
1:0
Feb 2, 2024 Liga de Expansion MX
Tapatio vs Atletico La Paz
0:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Atletico La Paz Compare
Top Goalscorer Illescas F.
1 Goals Assists Leader Barragan M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69
Tapatio Compare
Top Goalscorer Villaseca D.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Atletico La Paz 41 / 100
Tapatio 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Atletico La Paz Tapatio
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Atletico La Paz scored in 86% of their last 29 outings.
Tapatio let in goals in 83% of their last 30 matches.
Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.
Difficult form: Tapatio registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Atletico La Paz VS Tapatio
1.38 Goals Scored 1.38
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.75
100% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Atletico La Paz
(Home) 26 Jul
Club Atletico Morelia
4 : 2 Atletico La Paz
01 Jul
Juarez
2 : 2 Atletico La Paz
26 Apr
Atletico La Paz
1 : 2 Jaiba Brava
23 Apr
Jaiba Brava
2 : 0 Atletico La Paz
17 Apr
Atlante
1 : 1 Atletico La Paz
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26 Apr
Atletico La Paz
1 : 2 Jaiba Brava
11 Apr
Atletico La Paz
1 : 1 Tepatitlan de Morelos
28 Mar
Atletico La Paz
1 : 1 Jaiba Brava
21 Mar
Atletico La Paz
4 : 0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
08 Mar
Atletico La Paz
2 : 0 Tlaxcala
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Tapatio
(Away) 26 Jul
Tapatio
0 : 0 Cruz Azul Hidalgo
03 Jul
Club Leon
4 : 2 Tapatio
27 Apr
Cancun
1 : 0 Tapatio
24 Apr
Tapatio
1 : 1 Cancun
18 Apr
Dorados de Sinaloa
3 : 1 Tapatio
Page 1 of 6
03 Jul
Club Leon
4 : 2 Tapatio
27 Apr
Cancun
1 : 0 Tapatio
18 Apr
Dorados de Sinaloa
3 : 1 Tapatio
29 Mar
Zacatecas Mineros
2 : 1 Tapatio
13 Mar
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
4 : 3 Tapatio
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tepatitlan de Morelos | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 21:10 | 26 |
| 2 | Cancun | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 24:17 | 25 |
| 3 | Club Atletico Morelia | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 18:12 | 23 |
| 4 | Atletico La Paz | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 22:12 | 22 |
| 5 | Jaiba Brava | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 15:15 | 21 |
| 6 | Zacatecas Mineros | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 19:20 | 21 |
| 7 | Tapatio | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 28:24 | 20 |
| 8 | Atlante | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 21:17 | 20 |
| 9 | Irapuato | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 27:24 | 20 |
| 10 | Tlaxcala | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 16:17 | 20 |
| 11 | Venados FC | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 25:25 | 16 |
| 12 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 20:29 | 16 |
| 13 | Dorados de Sinaloa | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 17:28 | 13 |
| 14 | Correcaminos | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 14:27 | 12 |
| 15 | Leones Negros | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 15:25 | 11 |
Promotion - Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)
