Sport Picks
Atletico La Paz vs Tlaxcala - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Mexico
Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 Estadio Guaycura, La Paz 
Match Events
9'
9'
Zurita Jimenez U.
Assist: Illescas F.
16'
16'
Oliveira Silva C. H.
19'
19'
Alvarez D.
AI Match Summary
The Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 game between Atletico La Paz and Tlaxcala finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Atletico La Paz.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
39%
30%
31%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Atletico La Paz
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
39%
/ Low Confidence
- Atletico La Paz carry the better recent record into this one.
- 39% — that's where the model lands on Atletico La Paz taking it.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
Atletico La Paz Clean Sheet 18%
Tlaxcala Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Atletico La Paz | Tlaxcala |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 30 |
| Wins | 11 | 8 |
| Draws | 10 | 9 |
| Losses | 8 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 1.69 | 1.3 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.28 | 1.8 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.25 | 1.31 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 8, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Atletico La Paz vs Tlaxcala
2:0
Sep 28, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Tlaxcala vs Atletico La Paz
3:3
Jan 11, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Atletico La Paz vs Tlaxcala
4:4
Jul 27, 2024 Liga de Expansion MX
Tlaxcala vs Atletico La Paz
0:2
Feb 17, 2024 Liga de Expansion MX
Tlaxcala vs Atletico La Paz
2:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Atletico La Paz Compare
Top Goalscorer Zurita Jimenez U.
1 Goals Assists Leader Barragan M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.73
Avg xA / game 1.13
Tlaxcala Compare
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Atletico La Paz 67 / 100
Tlaxcala 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Atletico La Paz Tlaxcala
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Atletico La Paz Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Atletico La Paz scored in 83% of their last 29 games.
Tlaxcala's defensive record shows goals conceded in 80% of 30 matches.
These sides typically produce 4.60 goals when they meet.
Atletico La Paz has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Atletico La Paz VS Tlaxcala
2.63 Goals Scored 1.88
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.88
100% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 75%
Recent Form & Match History
Atletico La Paz
(Home) 03 Oct
Atletico La Paz
1 : 2 Venados FC
25 Sept
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 3 Atletico La Paz
19 Sept
Atletico La Paz
3 : 1 Correcaminos
13 Sept
Leones Negros
2 : 2 Atletico La Paz
05 Sept
Atletico La Paz
3 : 0 Zacatecas Mineros
Page 1 of 6
03 Oct
Atletico La Paz
1 : 2 Venados FC
19 Sept
Atletico La Paz
3 : 1 Correcaminos
05 Sept
Atletico La Paz
3 : 0 Zacatecas Mineros
22 Aug
Atletico La Paz
1 : 1 Cruz Azul Hidalgo
15 Aug
Atletico La Paz
2 : 0 Piratas
Page 1 of 3
Tlaxcala
(Away) 04 Oct
Club Atletico Morelia
1 : 1 Tlaxcala
26 Sept
Tlaxcala
4 : 1 Cancun
20 Sept
Tapatio
4 : 0 Tlaxcala
12 Sept
Tlaxcala
3 : 1 Jaiba Brava
05 Sept
Alacranes de Durango
1 : 1 Tlaxcala
Page 1 of 6
04 Oct
Club Atletico Morelia
1 : 1 Tlaxcala
20 Sept
Tapatio
4 : 0 Tlaxcala
05 Sept
Alacranes de Durango
1 : 1 Tlaxcala
21 Aug
Tepatitlan de Morelos
3 : 2 Tlaxcala
16 Aug
Dorados de Sinaloa
2 : 2 Tlaxcala
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tepatitlan de Morelos | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 21:10 | 26 |
| 2 | Cancun | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 24:17 | 25 |
| 3 | Club Atletico Morelia | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 18:12 | 23 |
| 4 | Atletico La Paz | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 22:12 | 22 |
| 5 | Jaiba Brava | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 15:15 | 21 |
| 6 | Zacatecas Mineros | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 19:20 | 21 |
| 7 | Tapatio | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 28:24 | 20 |
| 8 | Atlante | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 21:17 | 20 |
| 9 | Irapuato | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 27:24 | 20 |
| 10 | Tlaxcala | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 16:17 | 20 |
| 11 | Venados FC | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 25:25 | 16 |
| 12 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 20:29 | 16 |
| 13 | Dorados de Sinaloa | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 17:28 | 13 |
| 14 | Correcaminos | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 14:27 | 12 |
| 15 | Leones Negros | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 15:25 | 11 |
Promotion - Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)
