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Atletico-MG U20 vs Sport Recife U20

Brazil Brazil

Copa do Brasil U20
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Atletico-MG U20 play Sport Recife U20 in the Copa do Brasil U20. Atletico-MG U20 are favorites here. Recently, Atletico-MG U20 averaged 2.24 goals scored and 1 conceded. Sport Recife U20 averaged 1.7 goals scored and 1.1 conceded. In past meetings, Atletico-MG U20 won 4, Sport Recife U20 won 0, and they drew 1. Their last match on Nov 18, 2025 ended 1:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.20 for Atletico-MG U20 and 1.00 for Sport Recife U20. This points to a Atletico-MG U20 double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
Atletico-MG U20
25%
Draws
15%
Sport Recife U20
Draw rate projection: 25% Favored: Atletico-MG U20

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

91% / Very High Confidence
  • Atletico-MG U20 picked up more points recently compared to Sport Recife U20.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.20 vs 1.00 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 56%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 81%
Over 2.5 Goals 56%
Over 3.5 Goals 34%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 42%
Atletico-MG U20 Clean Sheet 23%
Sport Recife U20 Clean Sheet 12%
First Half Goal 73%
Second Half Goal 77%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Atletico-MG U20 Sport Recife U20
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 18 16
Draws 2 4
Losses 9 10
Goals Scored 2.24 1.7
Goals Conceded 1 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 2.63 1.83
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 1.33

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 18, 2025 Copa do Brasil U20
Sport Recife U20 vs Atletico-MG U20
1:2
Nov 12, 2025 Copa do Brasil U20
Atletico-MG U20 vs Sport Recife U20
1:1
Aug 7, 2021 Brasileiro U20
Atletico-MG U20 vs Sport Recife U20
1:0
Oct 10, 2020 Brasileiro U20
Sport Recife U20 vs Atletico-MG U20
0:1
Aug 3, 2019 Brasileiro U20
Sport Recife U20 vs Atletico-MG U20
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Atletico-MG U20 Compare

Top Goalscorer Lucas Louback
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.02
Avg xA / game 1.31

Sport Recife U20 Compare

Top Goalscorer Micael
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.66
Avg xA / game 1.02

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Atletico-MG U20 59 / 100
Sport Recife U20 16 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Atletico-MG U20 Sport Recife U20

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Atletico-MG U20 Win (1)
Secondary Pick Atletico-MG U20 & Over 2.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +15.2%
1.92
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12%
2.00
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Atletico-MG U20 attacking → ← attacking Sport Recife U20

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Atletico-MG U20 scored in 55% of their last 29 games.

Sport Recife U20 let in goals in 63% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.80 goals.

Atletico-MG U20 went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Sport Recife U20 lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

56 Points in last 5 52
2.63 Goals expected (xG) 1.83
0.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.33