Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Atletico-MG vs Mirassol

Brazil Brazil

Serie A Betano MRV Arena, Belo Horizonte
Our Tip

Match Events

17' Event
Minda A.
Assist: Bernard
40' Event
Willian Machado
Assist: Reinaldo
57'
Sub
Lucas Oliveira In: Jose Aldo
Out: Lucas Oliveira

AI Match Summary

Atletico-MG in this Serie A Betano matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Atletico-MG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Atletico-MG
39%
Draws
31%
Mirassol
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Atletico-MG have won more games recently than Mirassol.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Regular Serie A Betano form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Atletico-MG here — 2 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
Atletico-MG Clean Sheet 68%
Mirassol Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Atletico-MG Mirassol
Matches Played 28 27
Wins 13 9
Draws 5 5
Losses 10 13
Goals Scored 1.38 1.13
Goals Conceded 0.75 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 16, 2026 Serie A Betano
Atletico-MG vs Mirassol
3:1
Sep 28, 2025 Serie A Betano
Atletico-MG vs Mirassol
1:0
Apr 26, 2025 Serie A Betano
Mirassol vs Atletico-MG
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Atletico-MG Compare

Top Goalscorer Minda A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Cisse M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Mirassol Compare

Top Goalscorer Willian Machado
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Atletico-MG 41 / 100
Mirassol 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Atletico-MG Mirassol

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ATL Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mirassol's defensive record shows goals conceded in 85% of 27 matches.

Atletico-MG found the back of the net in 61% of recent matches (28 games).

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Atletico-MG stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Atletico-MG VS Mirassol
1.38 Goals Scored 1.13
0.75 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Atletico-MG

(Home)
21 Jul
Atletico-MG
1 : 1
Bahia
31 May
Vasco
0 : 1
Atletico-MG
27 May
Atletico-MG
1 : 0
Academia Puerto Cabello
24 May
Corinthians
1 : 0
Atletico-MG
21 May
Atletico-MG
2 : 0
Cienciano
Page 1 of 6

Mirassol

(Away)
17 Jul
Mirassol
2 : 1
Gremio
30 May
Athletico-PR
1 : 0
Mirassol
26 May
Lanus
1 : 0
Mirassol
23 May
Mirassol
1 : 0
Fluminense
20 May
Always Ready
1 : 2
Mirassol
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Palmeiras19135133:1444
2Flamengo RJ18114335:1637
3Athletico-PR19103626:1933
4Fluminense1995529:2432
5Bragantino1993726:2030
6Bahia1986528:2430
7Corinthians1976621:1927
8Cruzeiro1976626:2927
9Botafogo RJ1975733:3226
10Coritiba1975725:2726
11Vitoria1975722:2526
12Sao Paulo1974824:2225
13Atletico-MG1974823:2425
14Internacional1956822:2421
15Santos1956827:3121
16Gremio1956821:2521
17Vasco1955922:3020
18Mirassol1854920:2519
19Remo1946921:3218
20Chapecoense-SC19161217:399
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana 2027 (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B 2027 (Main)