Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Aucas vs Guayaquil City

Ecuador Ecuador

Liga Pro Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda, Quito
Our Tip

Match Events

12'
Laurino S.
29'
Napa G.
33'
Morales S.

AI Match Summary

The Liga Pro game between Aucas and Guayaquil City finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Aucas.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Aucas
35%
Draws
35%
Guayaquil City
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Aucas come out ahead of Guayaquil City on wins alone.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Aucas here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Aucas Clean Sheet 21%
Guayaquil City Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aucas Guayaquil City
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 16 10
Draws 5 9
Losses 9 11
Goals Scored 1.17 1.13
Goals Conceded 0.9 1.2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 8, 2026 Liga Pro
Aucas vs Guayaquil City
1:0
Feb 28, 2026 Liga Pro
Guayaquil City vs Aucas
1:1
Oct 1, 2023 Liga Pro
Guayaquil City vs Aucas
0:1
Apr 28, 2023 Liga Pro
Aucas vs Guayaquil City
1:0
Aug 27, 2022 Liga Pro
Aucas vs Guayaquil City
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aucas Compare

Top Goalscorer Arroyo L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Guayaquil City Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aucas 37 / 100
Guayaquil City 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aucas Guayaquil City

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Guayaquil City Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Aucas found the back of the net in 73% of recent matches (30 games).

Guayaquil City has conceded goals in 73% of their last 30 outings.

Historical meetings average 1.60 goals per match.

Solid form: Aucas remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Aucas VS Guayaquil City
1.25 Goals Scored 1.75
0.5 Goals Conceded 1.63
50% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 75%
0% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Aucas

(Home)
19 Sept
Aucas
1 : 2
Macara
12 Sept
Manta
0 : 0
Aucas
07 Sept
Aucas
1 : 1
Barcelona SC
03 Sept
U. Catolica
1 : 1
Aucas
30 Aug
Aucas
1 : 0
Libertad
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Guayaquil City

(Away)
19 Sept
Guayaquil City
1 : 1
Leones del Norte
12 Sept
Guayaquil City
3 : 1
Mushuc Runa
08 Sept
Orense
4 : 3
Guayaquil City
02 Sept
Dep. Cuenca
1 : 0
Guayaquil City
29 Aug
Guayaquil City
2 : 1
LDU Quito
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Independiente del Valle 30 24 2 4 73:33 74
2 U. Catolica 30 14 9 7 51:27 51
3 Macara 30 15 6 9 41:33 51
4 Aucas 30 14 8 8 33:28 50
5 LDU Quito 30 13 7 10 31:24 46
6 Barcelona SC 30 11 11 8 32:25 44
7 Libertad 30 11 8 11 33:34 41
8 Leones del Norte 30 10 9 11 31:32 39
9 Guayaquil City 30 10 9 11 33:36 39
10 Emelec 30 10 9 11 25:34 39
11 Mushuc Runa 30 9 11 10 35:38 38
12 Dep. Cuenca 30 10 6 14 25:37 36
13 Orense 30 9 6 15 36:47 33
14 Tecnico U. 30 10 2 18 28:42 32
15 Delfin 30 7 7 16 19:31 28
16 Manta 30 5 6 19 17:42 21
Promotion - Liga Pro (Championship Group)
Promotion - Liga Pro (Placement Group)
Relegation - Liga Pro (Relegation Group)