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Aucas vs Guayaquil City

Ecuador Ecuador

Liga Pro Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda
Wed, Jul 8, 2026
VS
12:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Aucas play Guayaquil City in the Liga Pro. It looks like a close match. Recently, Aucas averaged 1.5 goals scored and 1.03 conceded. Guayaquil City averaged 1.1 goals scored and 1.07 conceded. In past meetings, Aucas won 3, Guayaquil City won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on Feb 28, 2026 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.19 for Aucas and 0.94 for Guayaquil City. This points to a Aucas double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Aucas
24%
Draws
33%
Guayaquil City
Draw rate projection: 24% Favored: Aucas

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / Medium Confidence
  • Aucas picked up more points recently compared to Guayaquil City.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.19 vs 0.94 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 60%
Over 2.5 Goals 40%
Over 3.5 Goals 24%
Over 4.5 Goals 12%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 45%
Aucas Clean Sheet 24%
Guayaquil City Clean Sheet 12%
First Half Goal 54%
Second Half Goal 57%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aucas Guayaquil City
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 14 12
Draws 8 7
Losses 8 11
Goals Scored 1.5 1.1
Goals Conceded 1.03 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 28, 2026 Liga Pro
Guayaquil City vs Aucas
1:1
Oct 1, 2023 Liga Pro
Guayaquil City vs Aucas
0:1
Apr 28, 2023 Liga Pro
Aucas vs Guayaquil City
1:0
Aug 27, 2022 Liga Pro
Aucas vs Guayaquil City
2:1
Apr 16, 2022 Liga Pro
Guayaquil City vs Aucas
4:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aucas 44 / 100
Guayaquil City 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aucas Guayaquil City

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Aucas or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +23%
2.86
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +17.6%
2.94
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Aucas attacking → ← attacking Guayaquil City

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Aucas scored in 73% of their last 30 games.

Guayaquil City let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Aucas went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Guayaquil City lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

50 Points in last 5 43
1.38 Goals expected (xG) 1.00
0.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Independiente del Valle16121332:1837
2LDU Quito1683519:1327
3Dep. Cuenca1683518:1727
4U. Catolica1675426:1426
5Barcelona SC1675418:1326
6Aucas1675419:1626
7Orense1664621:2222
8Emelec1664613:1622
9Tecnico U.1662817:1620
10Macara1655615:1820
11Guayaquil City1654714:1919
12Mushuc Runa1646619:2118
13Leones del Norte1645715:1817
14Libertad1645716:2217
15Delfin164488:1516
16Manta1633107:1912