Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Aucas vs Independiente del Valle

Ecuador Ecuador

Liga Pro Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda
Our Tip

Match Events

6'
Preciado E.
14' Event
Pata E.
Assist: Romero Padilla D. A.
45' Event
Reasco D.
Assist: Loor L.

AI Match Summary

The Liga Pro game between Aucas and Independiente del Valle finished 0-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Independiente del Valle.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

4%
Aucas
6%
Draws
90%
Independiente del Valle
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Independiente del Valle

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Independiente del Valle come out ahead of Aucas on wins alone.
  • 90% — that's where the model lands on Independiente del Valle taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Independiente del Valle have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Aucas Clean Sheet 10%
Independiente del Valle Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aucas Independiente del Valle
Matches Played 29 35
Wins 15 25
Draws 6 5
Losses 8 5
Goals Scored 1 2.88
Goals Conceded 0.88 0.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 2.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 16, 2026 Liga Pro
Aucas vs Independiente del Valle
0:3
Mar 14, 2026 Liga Pro
Independiente del Valle vs Aucas
2:2
Jul 19, 2025 Liga Pro
Independiente del Valle vs Aucas
2:1
Mar 28, 2025 Liga Pro
Aucas vs Independiente del Valle
1:2
Sep 1, 2024 Liga Pro
Aucas vs Independiente del Valle
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aucas Compare

Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Independiente del Valle Compare

Top Goalscorer Pata E.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Reasco D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.62
Avg xA / game 1.6

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aucas 10 / 100
Independiente del Valle 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aucas Independiente del Valle

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick IND Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Aucas scored in 72% of their last 29 outings.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Aucas has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Independiente del Valle let in goals in 57% of their last 35 matches.

Scoring Trends

Aucas VS Independiente del Valle
1 Goals Scored 2.88
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.75
50% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 50%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Independiente del Valle19151343:1946
2Aucas1995521:1932
3Barcelona SC1987421:1431
4U. Catolica1985629:1829
5Macara1985620:1929
6LDU Quito1984719:1528
7Dep. Cuenca1984719:2128
8Emelec1976616:1727
9Leones del Norte1966720:2024
10Tecnico U.19721019:2023
11Orense1965822:2623
12Guayaquil City1965817:2223
13Mushuc Runa1956824:2921
14Libertad1956818:2521
15Delfin1955911:1820
16Manta1934127:2413