Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Aucas vs Orense

Ecuador Ecuador

Liga Pro Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Aucas play Orense in the Liga Pro. It looks like a close match. Recently, Aucas averaged 1.5 goals scored and 0.96 conceded. Orense averaged 1.14 goals scored and 1.46 conceded. In past meetings, Aucas won 2, Orense won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on Mar 24, 2026 ended 3:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.31 for Aucas and 1.19 for Orense. This points to a Aucas double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

48%
Aucas
22%
Draws
30%
Orense
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Aucas

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

77% / High Confidence
  • Aucas picked up more points recently compared to Orense.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.31 vs 1.19 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 72%
Over 2.5 Goals 52%
Over 3.5 Goals 31%
Over 4.5 Goals 16%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 51%
Aucas Clean Sheet 20%
Orense Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 65%
Second Half Goal 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aucas Orense
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 14 9
Draws 7 6
Losses 7 13
Goals Scored 1.5 1.14
Goals Conceded 0.96 1.46
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 24, 2026 Liga Pro
Aucas vs Orense
3:2
Sep 21, 2025 Liga Pro
Aucas vs Orense
0:0
May 25, 2025 Liga Pro
Orense vs Aucas
2:1
Aug 3, 2024 Liga Pro
Orense vs Aucas
4:0
Mar 2, 2024 Liga Pro
Aucas vs Orense
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aucas Compare

Top Goalscorer Mena A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Guzman P.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Orense Compare

Top Goalscorer Zambrano Pesantez E. S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aucas 47 / 100
Orense 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aucas Orense

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Aucas or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +20%
2.50
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.8%
2.17
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Aucas attacking → ← attacking Orense

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Aucas scored in 71% of their last 28 games.

Orense let in goals in 82% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Aucas went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Orense lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

49 Points in last 5 33
1.38 Goals expected (xG) 1.38
1.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.25

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Independiente del Valle17131336:1840
2Barcelona SC1785420:1329
3LDU Quito1783619:1427
4Dep. Cuenca1783618:1927
5U. Catolica1775528:1726
6Aucas1675419:1626
7Macara1765616:1823
8Emelec1765614:1723
9Orense1664621:2222
10Mushuc Runa1756622:2321
11Tecnico U.1662817:1620
12Leones del Norte1755718:1920
13Guayaquil City1654714:1919
14Delfin174589:1617
15Libertad1745817:2517
16Manta1733117:2312