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Auckland City vs Magenta

Australia & Oceania Australia & Oceania

OFC Champions League 2024 Stade Pater, Papeete
Our Tip

Match Events

25'
Sub
Pereira de Carvalho A. In: Hmaloko J.
Out: Pereira de Carvalho A.
38'
Watu J.
62'
Sub
Garriga G. In: Zhou Tong
Out: Garriga G.

AI Match Summary

Auckland City in this OFC Champions League 2024 tie, finishing 1-0. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

58%
Auckland City
15%
Draws
27%
Magenta
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Auckland City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Auckland City lately — more wins on the board than Magenta.
  • 58% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Auckland City have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Auckland City, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 80%).
  • History favors Auckland City here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 80%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Auckland City Clean Sheet 16%
Magenta Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Auckland City Magenta
Matches Played 33 28
Wins 22 15
Draws 4 4
Losses 7 9
Goals Scored 1.82 2.39
Goals Conceded 1.52 1.54
Expected Goals (xG) 2.19 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 23, 2024 OFC Champions League
Auckland City vs Magenta
1:0
Apr 28, 2019 OFC Champions League
Magenta vs Auckland City
2:1
Feb 24, 2019 OFC Champions League
Auckland City vs Magenta
2:1
Feb 21, 2011 OFC Champions League
Magenta vs Auckland City
0:1
Oct 23, 2010 OFC Champions League
Auckland City vs Magenta
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Auckland City Compare

Top Goalscorer Ukich S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.68
Avg xA / game 1.09

Magenta Compare

Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Auckland City 30 / 100
Magenta 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Auckland City Magenta

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Auckland City Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Auckland City scored in 85% of their last 33 games.

Recent resilience: Auckland City stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Magenta's defensive record shows goals conceded in 68% of 28 matches.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Scoring Trends

Auckland City VS Magenta
1.38 Goals Scored 0
2 Goals Conceded 3
88% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 100%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Auckland City

(Home)
22 Aug
Auckland City
2 : 0
Central Coast
19 Aug
Auckland City
3 : 1
Rewa
16 Aug
Auckland City
4 : 3
Venus
13 Aug
Tiga Sport
0 : 1
Auckland City
10 Aug
Central Coast
1 : 2
Auckland City
Page 1 of 7

Magenta

(Away)
15 Nov
Magenta
0 : 3
Mulhouse
23 May
Auckland City
1 : 0
Magenta
21 May
Ifira Blackbird
1 : 2
Magenta
19 May
Magenta
0 : 0
Pirae
16 May
Magenta
8 : 0
Vaivase-Tai
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Auckland City 1
Magenta 0
Pirae 4
Rewa 2
Final
Auckland City 4
Pirae 0