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Auckland City vs Wellington Phoenix 2

New Zealand New Zealand

National League Kiwitea Street
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Auckland City play Wellington Phoenix 2 in the National League. It looks like a close match. Recently, Auckland City averaged 1.63 goals scored and 1.63 conceded. Wellington Phoenix 2 averaged 1 goals scored and 1.75 conceded. In past meetings, Auckland City won 3, Wellington Phoenix 2 won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on Nov 22, 2025 ended 2:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.69 for Auckland City and 1.31 for Wellington Phoenix 2. This points to a Auckland City double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Auckland City
6%
Draws
4%
Wellington Phoenix 2
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Auckland City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Auckland City has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to Wellington Phoenix 2.
  • Model forecasts a 90% win probability edge for Auckland City.
  • League standings and seasonal metrics in National League provide steady trend data.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78%
Auckland City Clean Sheet 18%
Wellington Phoenix 2 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Auckland City Wellington Phoenix 2
Matches Played 36 30
Wins 22 12
Draws 5 2
Losses 9 16
Goals Scored 1.63 1
Goals Conceded 1.63 1.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 22, 2025 National League
Auckland City vs Wellington Phoenix 2
2:0
Nov 10, 2024 National League
Auckland City vs Wellington Phoenix 2
3:4
Sep 23, 2023 National League
Wellington Phoenix 2 vs Auckland City
0:1
Nov 5, 2022 National League
Auckland City vs Wellington Phoenix 2
2:0
Feb 20, 2021 Football Championship
Wellington Phoenix 2 vs Auckland City
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Auckland City Compare

Top Goalscorer Boxall N.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ilich M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Wellington Phoenix 2 Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Auckland City 85 / 100
Wellington Phoenix 2 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Auckland City Wellington Phoenix 2

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AKL Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Auckland City scored in 86% of their last 36 games.

Wellington Phoenix 2 let in goals in 83% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Auckland City went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Wellington Phoenix 2 lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Auckland City VS Wellington Phoenix 2
1.63 Goals Scored 1
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.75
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Wellington Olympic1070323:1421
2Auckland City1062219:1420
3Miramar1061325:1419
4Auckland FC 21053217:1018
5Western Springs1051416:1316
6Birkenhead1050520:2115
7Christchurch1042416:1914
8Wellington Phoenix 21031618:2110
9Western Suburbs1031619:2110
10Auckland United1022611:198
11Coastal Spirit102175:237