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Auckland FC vs Wellington Phoenix

Australia Australia

A-League 2025/2026 Go Media Stadium, Auckland
Our Tip

Match Events

7' Event
Brook L.
Assist: Rogerson L.
45'
Cosgrove S.
45'
Hughes I.

AI Match Summary

The A-League 2025/2026 game between Auckland FC and Wellington Phoenix finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Auckland FC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

80%
Auckland FC
11%
Draws
9%
Wellington Phoenix
Draw rate projection: 11% Favored: Auckland FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

93% / Very High Confidence
  • Wellington Phoenix haven't matched Auckland FC's recent run of results.
  • Auckland FC are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Auckland FC here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
Auckland FC Clean Sheet 19%
Wellington Phoenix Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Auckland FC Wellington Phoenix
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 14 12
Draws 10 6
Losses 6 12
Goals Scored 1.5 1
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 21, 2026 A-League
Wellington Phoenix vs Auckland FC
0:5
Dec 6, 2025 A-League
Auckland FC vs Wellington Phoenix
3:1
Nov 8, 2025 A-League
Wellington Phoenix vs Auckland FC
1:2
Feb 22, 2025 A-League
Auckland FC vs Wellington Phoenix
6:1
Dec 7, 2024 A-League
Auckland FC vs Wellington Phoenix
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Auckland FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Brook L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader De Vries F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Wellington Phoenix Compare

Top Goalscorer Rufer A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Auckland FC 76 / 100
Wellington Phoenix 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Auckland FC Wellington Phoenix

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AUC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Auckland FC scored in 93% of their last 30 outings.

Wellington Phoenix has conceded goals in 80% of their last 30 outings.

Historical meetings average 4.40 goals per match.

Auckland FC went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Auckland FC VS Wellington Phoenix
1.5 Goals Scored 1
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Auckland FC

(Home)
23 May
Auckland FC
1 : 0
Sydney FC
15 May
Adelaide Utd
0 : 3
Auckland FC
09 May
Auckland FC
1 : 1
Adelaide Utd
02 May
Auckland FC
2 : 1
Melbourne City
26 Apr
Sydney FC
2 : 2
Auckland FC
Page 1 of 6

Wellington Phoenix

(Away)
24 Apr
Macarthur FC
4 : 0
Wellington Phoenix
18 Apr
Wellington Phoenix
2 : 1
Western Sydney Wanderers
12 Apr
Melbourne City
2 : 0
Wellington Phoenix
05 Apr
Melbourne Victory
0 : 1
Wellington Phoenix
21 Mar
Brisbane Roar
1 : 2
Wellington Phoenix
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Newcastle Jets26153855:3948
2Adelaide Utd26127746:3643
3Auckland FC26119642:2942
4Melbourne Victory26117844:3340
5Sydney FC26116933:2539
6Melbourne City26108833:3338
7Macarthur FC26971037:4434
8Wellington Phoenix26961136:4833
9Central Coast26881035:4232
10Perth Glory26871132:3931
11Brisbane Roar26681227:3626
12Western Sydney Wanderers26561527:4321
Promotion - A-League 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - A-League 2025/2026 (Play Offs)