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Auckland United vs Melville

New Zealand New Zealand

Chatham Cup 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Atkinson D.
10' Event
Atkinson D.
25' Event
Izumi B.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 7-1, with Auckland United advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Auckland United
33%
Draws
27%
Melville
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Auckland United

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Melville haven't matched Auckland United's recent run of results.
  • 40% — that's where the model lands on Auckland United taking it.
  • Auckland United have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Auckland United, who have won 2 of the last 2 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 48%
Over 4.5 Goals 22%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Auckland United Clean Sheet 20%
Melville Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Auckland United Melville
Matches Played 32 25
Wins 13 11
Draws 6 1
Losses 13 13
Goals Scored 2.63 0.33
Goals Conceded 1.75 3
Expected Goals (xG) 2.63 0.33
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 3.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 5, 2025 Chatham Cup
Auckland United vs Melville
7:1
Oct 2, 2022 National League
Auckland United vs Melville
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Auckland United Compare

Top Goalscorer Atkinson D.
3 Goals
Assists Leader Olaoye D.
2 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.02
Avg xA / game 1.31

Melville Compare

Avg xG / game 0.3
Avg xA / game 0.18

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Auckland United 40 / 100
Melville 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Auckland United Melville

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AUC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Melville's defensive record shows goals conceded in 80% of 25 matches.

Games between these two average 4.50 goals.

Auckland United's goal record stands at 75% scoring rate across 32 recent games.

Away concern: Melville has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Auckland United VS Melville
2.63 Goals Scored 0.33
1.75 Goals Conceded 3
88% Over 1.5 33%
75% Over 2.5 33%
63% Over 3.5 33%

Recent Form & Match History

Auckland United

(Home)
04 Jul
Auckland United
3 : 1
Cambridge
07 Dec
Auckland FC 2
3 : 0
Auckland United
30 Nov
Auckland United
0 : 3
Wellington Olympic
23 Nov
Western Suburbs
1 : 0
Auckland United
15 Nov
Auckland United
3 : 2
Birkenhead
Page 1 of 7

Melville

(Away)
04 Jul
Melville
0 : 1
Hibiscus Coast
05 Jul
Auckland United
7 : 1
Melville
06 Jul
Melville
0 : 1
Hibiscus Coast
10 Sept
Melville
2 : 3
Christchurch
19 Aug
Melville
3 : 1
Waterside Karori
Page 1 of 5

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Fencibles United AFC2
Western Springs1
Manukau United1
Eastern Suburbs3
Western Suburbs4
Palmerston North United FC1
Napier City2
Wellington Olympic3
Wanaka FC0
Christchurch3
Auckland United7
Melville1
Dunedin City Royals0
Nelson Suburbs FC1
Birkenhead7
Waiheke United0
Quarter-finals
Fencibles United AFC0
Eastern Suburbs2
Western Suburbs2
Wellington Olympic3
Christchurch2
Auckland United4
Nelson Suburbs FC2
Birkenhead1
Semi-finals
Eastern Suburbs1
Wellington Olympic2
Auckland United3
Nelson Suburbs FC0
Final
Wellington Olympic4
Auckland United2