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Auckland United vs Wellington Olympic

New Zealand New Zealand

National League 2023
Our Tip

Match Events

12' Event
Hoy G.
23' Event
Takahashi H.
34' Event
Stevens J.

AI Match Summary

Wellington Olympic in this National League 2023 matchup, with the score ending 1-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Wellington Olympic.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

22%
Auckland United
28%
Draws
50%
Wellington Olympic
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Wellington Olympic

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Wellington Olympic have won more games recently than Auckland United.
  • Model gives Wellington Olympic a 50% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Wellington Olympic here — 4 wins from the last 4 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 80.2%
Auckland United Clean Sheet 10%
Wellington Olympic Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Auckland United Wellington Olympic
Matches Played 30 43
Wins 12 28
Draws 6 4
Losses 12 11
Goals Scored 1.38 2
Goals Conceded 1.75 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 30, 2025 National League
Auckland United vs Wellington Olympic
0:3
Sep 7, 2025 Chatham Cup
Auckland United vs Wellington Olympic
2:4
Oct 21, 2023 National League
Auckland United vs Wellington Olympic
1:3
Nov 5, 2022 National League
Wellington Olympic vs Auckland United
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Auckland United Compare

Top Goalscorer Takahashi H.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Wellington Olympic Compare

Top Goalscorer Hoy G.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Stevens J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Auckland United 22 / 100
Wellington Olympic 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Auckland United Wellington Olympic

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick WEL Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Wellington Olympic has conceded goals in 86% of their last 43 outings.

Historical meetings average 4.25 goals per match.

Auckland United scored in 77% of their last 30 games.

Difficult form: Wellington Olympic registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Auckland United VS Wellington Olympic
1.38 Goals Scored 2
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Auckland United

(Home)
04 Jul
Auckland United
3 : 1
Cambridge
07 Dec
Auckland FC 2
3 : 0
Auckland United
30 Nov
Auckland United
0 : 3
Wellington Olympic
23 Nov
Western Suburbs
1 : 0
Auckland United
15 Nov
Auckland United
3 : 2
Birkenhead
Page 1 of 6

Wellington Olympic

(Away)
13 Dec
Wellington Olympic
2 : 3
Auckland City
06 Dec
Wellington Olympic
2 : 1
Miramar
30 Nov
Auckland United
0 : 3
Wellington Olympic
21 Nov
Wellington Olympic
2 : 3
Christchurch
15 Nov
Auckland FC 2
2 : 1
Wellington Olympic
Page 1 of 9

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Wellington Olympic972034:1523
2Auckland City970219:1221
3Christchurch951318:1616
4Eastern Suburbs943223:1115
5Manurewa941416:2013
6Cashmere Technical941424:2413
7Auckland United924315:1710
8Wellington Phoenix 2930619:249
9Napier City921613:267
10Petone90186:221
Promotion - National League 2023 (Grand Final)