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Audax Sao Mateus vs Serra

Brazil Brazil

Copa Espirito Santo
Audax Sao Mateus Logo

Audax Sao Mateus

1 - 0
FT
Serra Logo

Serra

Our Tip

Match Events

23' Event
Walace
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-0. This leg finished 1-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

77%
Audax Sao Mateus
15%
Draws
8%
Serra
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Audax Sao Mateus

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

77% / Very High Confidence
  • Serra have won more games recently than Audax Sao Mateus.
  • 77% — that's where the model lands on Audax Sao Mateus taking it.
  • Serra arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Audax Sao Mateus, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 22.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65%
Audax Sao Mateus Clean Sheet 20%
Serra Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Audax Sao Mateus Serra
Matches Played 17 34
Wins 6 20
Draws 2 3
Losses 9 11
Goals Scored 1.06 1.71
Goals Conceded 1.35 1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.85 1.18
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 28, 2026 Copa Espirito Santo
Audax Sao Mateus vs Serra
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Audax Sao Mateus Compare

Top Goalscorer Walace
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.65
Avg xA / game 0.42

Serra Compare

Avg xG / game 1.07
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Audax Sao Mateus 85 / 100
Serra 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Audax Sao Mateus Serra

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Audax Sao Mateus Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Audax Sao Mateus went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Difficult form: Serra registered 4 defeats in their last 5 games.

Audax Sao Mateus scored in 53% of their last 17 games.

Serra's defensive record shows goals conceded in 59% of 34 matches.

Scoring Trends

Audax Sao Mateus VS Serra
0.5 Goals Scored 0.6
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.2
75% Over 1.5 40%
38% Over 2.5 20%
25% Over 3.5 20%

Recent Form & Match History

Audax Sao Mateus

(Home)
12 Sept
Estrela do Norte
3 : 0
Audax Sao Mateus
06 Sept
Audax Sao Mateus
1 : 2
Estrela do Norte
29 Aug
GEL
0 : 1
Audax Sao Mateus
22 Aug
Audax Sao Mateus
4 : 0
Doze Futebol Clube
18 Aug
CTE Colatina
0 : 5
Audax Sao Mateus
Page 1 of 4

Serra

(Away)
06 Jun
Rio Branco ES
1 : 0
Serra
30 May
Serra
1 : 1
Porto Vitoria
24 May
Rio Branco-VN
1 : 0
Serra
20 May
Vitoria ES
3 : 2
Serra
09 May
Serra
2 : 3
Vilavelhense
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Porto Vitoria 7 5 1 1 14:5 16
2 Vitoria ES 7 4 1 2 16:8 13
3 Vilavelhense 7 4 1 2 10:8 13
4 Rio Branco-VN 7 4 1 2 6:4 13
5 Rio Branco ES 7 3 2 2 11:7 11
6 Sport-ES 7 2 0 5 3:13 6
7 Serra 7 1 1 5 6:10 4
8 Audax Sao Mateus 7 1 1 5 2:13 4
Promotion - Copa Espirito Santo (Play Offs)