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Audax Sao Mateus vs Serra

Brazil Brazil

Copa Espirito Santo
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Match Events

23' Event
Walace

AI Match Summary

Audax Sao Mateus in this Copa Espirito Santo matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Audax Sao Mateus.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

18%
Audax Sao Mateus
22%
Draws
60%
Serra
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Serra

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • Serra have won more games recently than Audax Sao Mateus.
  • 60% — that's where the model lands on Serra taking it.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this Copa Espirito Santo fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.2%
Audax Sao Mateus Clean Sheet 17%
Serra Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Audax Sao Mateus Serra
Matches Played 8 31
Wins 1 17
Draws 1 3
Losses 6 11
Goals Scored 0.25 1.13
Goals Conceded 1.63 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 0.25 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 28, 2026 Copa Espirito Santo
Audax Sao Mateus vs Serra
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Audax Sao Mateus Compare

Top Goalscorer Walace
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.19
Avg xA / game 0.13

Serra Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Audax Sao Mateus 20 / 100
Serra 58 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Audax Sao Mateus Serra

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SER Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Serra has conceded goals in 61% of their last 31 outings.

Serra lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Audax Sao Mateus's goal record stands at 25% scoring rate across 8 recent games.

H2H data points to 1.00 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Audax Sao Mateus VS Serra
0.25 Goals Scored 1.13
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.13
50% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Porto Vitoria751114:516
2Vitoria ES741216:813
3Vilavelhense741210:813
4Rio Branco-VN74126:413
5Rio Branco ES732211:711
6Sport-ES72053:136
7Serra71156:104
8Audax Sao Mateus71152:134