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Aurora F.C. vs Marquense - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Guatemala Guatemala

Liga Nacional 2025/2026 Estadio Guillermo Slowing, Amatitlan
Our Tip

Match Events

15'
Sub
Vasquez E. In: Fuentes F.
Out: Vasquez E.
15'
Fuentes F.
33'
Sub
Joj J. In: Amaya W.
Out: Joj J.

AI Match Summary

The Liga Nacional 2025/2026 game between Aurora F.C. and Marquense finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Marquense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%
Aurora F.C.
15%
Draws
65%
Marquense
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Marquense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / High Confidence
  • Marquense carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 65% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Aurora F.C. Clean Sheet 16%
Marquense Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aurora F.C. Marquense
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 6 14
Draws 6 5
Losses 16 11
Goals Scored 0.86 1.07
Goals Conceded 1.46 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 19, 2026 Liga Nacional
Aurora F.C. vs Marquense
1:0
Apr 15, 2026 Liga Nacional
Aurora F.C. vs Marquense
0:1
Feb 26, 2026 Liga Nacional
Marquense vs Aurora F.C.
0:0
Oct 13, 2025 Liga Nacional
Marquense vs Aurora F.C.
1:1
Aug 3, 2025 Liga Nacional
Aurora F.C. vs Marquense
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aurora F.C. Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Marquense Compare

Top Goalscorer Casas D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aurora F.C. 36 / 100
Marquense 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aurora F.C. Marquense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Marquense Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Aurora F.C. found the back of the net in 61% of recent matches (28 games).

Marquense has conceded goals in 67% of their last 30 outings.

Games between these two average 1.20 goals.

Solid form: Aurora F.C. remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Aurora F.C. VS Marquense
1.5 Goals Scored 1.13
1.75 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Aurora F.C.

(Home)
04 Oct
Guastatoya
2 : 1
Aurora F.C.
27 Sept
Coban Imperial
3 : 2
Aurora F.C.
19 Sept
Aurora F.C.
1 : 0
Marquense
13 Sept
Deportivo Mixco
3 : 2
Aurora F.C.
10 Sept
Aurora F.C.
1 : 2
Municipal
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Marquense

(Away)
03 Oct
Marquense
2 : 1
Antigua
27 Sept
Marquense
1 : 0
Malacateco
19 Sept
Aurora F.C.
1 : 0
Marquense
13 Sept
Marquense
0 : 0
Deportivo San Pedro
10 Sept
Comunicaciones
0 : 2
Marquense
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Xelaju 22 11 6 5 34:19 39
2 Municipal 22 11 5 6 32:21 38
3 Deportivo Mixco 22 10 6 6 30:26 36
4 Comunicaciones 22 11 2 9 28:26 35
5 Antigua 22 9 7 6 34:29 34
6 Coban Imperial 22 8 8 6 29:22 32
7 Guastatoya 22 8 7 7 29:21 31
8 Marquense 22 9 3 10 25:29 30
9 Mictlan 22 7 6 9 25:36 27
10 Malacateco 22 6 4 12 19:25 22
11 Aurora F.C. 22 4 8 10 14:30 20
12 Deportivo Achuapa 22 5 4 13 17:32 19
Promotion - Liga Nacional 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)