Sport Picks

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Austin FC vs Louisville City

World World

Club Friendly
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Austin FC in this Club Friendly matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Austin FC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Austin FC
39%
Draws
31%
Louisville City
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Louisville City have won more games recently than Austin FC.
  • 39% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 33.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 15%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Austin FC Clean Sheet 16%
Louisville City Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Austin FC Louisville City
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 6 16
Draws 7 3
Losses 16 10
Goals Scored 1.14 1.88
Goals Conceded 1 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.14 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 14, 2026 US Open Cup
Louisville City vs Austin FC
2:1
Jan 28, 2026 Club Friendly
Austin FC vs Louisville City
1:0
Feb 1, 2025 Club Friendly
Austin FC vs Louisville City
3:1
Feb 3, 2024 Club Friendly
Austin FC vs Louisville City
2:2
Feb 11, 2023 Club Friendly
Austin FC vs Louisville City
4:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Austin FC 30 / 100
Louisville City 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Austin FC Louisville City

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AUS Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.

Attacking prowess: Austin FC scored in 72% of their last 29 outings.

Louisville City let in goals in 69% of their last 29 matches.

Austin FC has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Austin FC VS Louisville City
1.14 Goals Scored 1.88
1 Goals Conceded 1.25
57% Over 1.5 75%
57% Over 2.5 38%
29% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Austin FC

(Home)
23 Jul
Austin FC
3 : 1
Seattle Sounders
08 Jul
Austin FC
4 : 0
Sporting Jax
03 Jul
Austin FC
0 : 1
Queretaro
23 May
St. Louis City
3 : 0
Austin FC
17 May
Austin FC
1 : 2
Sporting Kansas City
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Louisville City

(Away)
18 Jul
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
3 : 1
Louisville City
12 Jul
Louisville City
4 : 2
Lexington
05 Jul
Louisville City
1 : 0
Hartford Athletic
20 Jun
Detroit City
0 : 1
Louisville City
14 Jun
Louisville City
2 : 2
Brooklyn FC
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